What will be the outcome of my ACX grant for automated mass appraisal of land values in Philadelphia?
Jan 1, 2023
M$481 bet
Will Jarvis and I were awarded a grant for doing automated mass appraisal of land values in Philadelphia: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results?s=r I had previously written on the subject here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/does-georgism-work-part-3-can-unimproved?utm_source=url&s=r Advisors on the project include Ted Gwartney[1] and Paul Bidanset (founder of the Center for Appraisal Research and Technology: https://www.openappraisal.org) The goal of the project is to build a computer-assisted mass appraisal model that is both open source and open data, and then run tests to see how accurate its predictions for property prices and land values are is against future property and land sales. [1] Ted Gwartney, former professor of Real Estate Appraisal at Baruch College, New York. He has an MAI in Land & Commercial Appraisal from the Appraisal Institute and is former president of the Council of Georgist Organizations. He has a lot of professional experience as an assessor in British Columbia, Southfield in Michigan, and Hartford, Bridgeport, and Greenwich in Connecticut. May 11, 10:17pm: #Georgism #Personal Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
LarsDoucet
Lars Doucet answered
Total success: accurately and credibly predicts land values and property values
23%
LarsDoucet
Lars Doucet answered
Meh: predicts property values and land values, but is more or less identical in performance to what the status quo assessments in Philadelphia already generate
21%
LarsDoucet
Lars Doucet answered
Failure: ship something, but it's broken garbage and the results are inconclusive or useless
14%
LarsDoucet
Lars Doucet answered
Partial success: predicts property values and land values, but the error margin is really wide
14%
LarsDoucet
Lars Doucet answered
Partial success: accurately and credibly predicts property values, but not land values
11%
LarsDoucet
Lars Doucet answered
Fail to ship anything at all
11%
Add your answer
LarsDoucet
Total success: accurately and credibly predicts land values and property values
23%
LarsDoucet
Meh: predicts property values and land values, but is more or less identical in performance to what the status quo assessments in Philadelphia already generate
21%
LarsDoucet
Failure: ship something, but it's broken garbage and the results are inconclusive or useless
14%
LarsDoucet
Partial success: predicts property values and land values, but the error margin is really wide
14%
LarsDoucet
Partial success: accurately and credibly predicts property values, but not land values
11%
LarsDoucet
Fail to ship anything at all
11%
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