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How many years until Dall-E 2 is reproduced by someone else and made open source and generally available?
11
Ṁ740Ṁ460
resolved Aug 23
100%62%
< 1 year
6%Other
10%
1 year
17%
2 years
2%
3 years
1.0%
4 years
0.7%
5 years
1.1%
Will never happen
This is Dall-E 2: https://openai.com/dall-e-2/ It's an impressive generative art AI that can generate cool images from a text prompt. Right now it is closed down by OpenAI and if GPT-3 is any indicator will remain so for some time, at best being available as a commercial SaaS solution. So this market is for you to place a bet on how many years before someone else reproduces something that is generally regarded as being at least 80% as good as what is being showcased today, but is open source and generally available for anyone to use. Apr 7, 5:36pm: #Computers #AI #OpenAI #Art Close date updated to 2027-04-14 11:59 pm
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Any further arguments for why stable diffusion doesn’t meet this bar? I feel like any quibbles over quality at this point are made up for by the explosion of tools in the SD ecosystem

@LarsDoucet Oh I forgot I resolved this already lol

I'm pretty willing to call it that Stable Diffusion meets the 80% bar

@LarsDoucet Stable Diffusion meets over 100% of the bar!

@SG Does it? Stable Diffusion is pretty subpar in my experience, but then again, Dall-E is pretty much subpar too now that it has to be tweaked down for release

@JoyVoid Eh, I guess this is around on par with Dall-e 2.

Prompt: "cyberpunk fortuneteller with cash flying around"

@SG I like the third hand...

@SG Yeah, that's getting to be about as good as Dall-E, well within my margin. I think most distinctions between them essentially amount to the way they respond to prompts. SD requires a different prompt approach and has a different flavor than Dall-E, but it's really up there once you learn how to use it.

@SG


I don't agree this is the same quality at all!

@JoyVoid The margin was 80% in any case, and the differences there mostly have to do with style and I've seen stable diffusion examples that can close the gap once you account for the differences in how they take prompts.

@LarsDoucet That makes sense, thanks for restating the resolution criteria. My experience with playing with stable diffusion is that it's very hard to get anything good out of it, while dall-e needs very little direction (though it might just be that I haven't found the right way to prompt it correctly yet).

But I understand that if your question only compares peak performance, then this might not matter. I was only confused about SD being over 100% the bar, I don't have much opinion on 80% either way

@JoyVoid Cool, thanks for understanding! I expect that we'll get to 100% Dall-E quality pretty soon with an open model anyways, but ... that's for another market!

What percent would you say craiyon.com is? I'd say around 30-50%.
How come the options add up to 88.2%?
@horse: did you forget the link to that twitter account?
Also, this person's twitter account can give a good idea of what can be done with current open source image generation tech; currently they're also using the latent diffusion model, but their work seems better than the examples I've seen, if that influences resolution.
Using https://huggingface.co/spaces/multimodalart/latentdiffusion (same model as DAL59 linked, just easier to interact with), I tried "astronaut riding a horse" and I'd say the results were 30% to 50% as good as DALL-E 2.
Let's interpret this one as none of the others happens by the time the market closes.
How would this ever pay out?
seems cheap right now