How many ballots will it take to decide the next speaker of the House?
125
237
2.2k
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
15

Minimum ballots is 1, maximum is 15. If it goes over 15, I will still choose 15 as the resolving criteria.

EDIT: I thought I had set the max at 20, but I actually had set it at 15. I'll immediately open a new market now with a higher limit, seeing as people are pushing us up to 14 already.

Here's part 2, which goes up to 50:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-many-ballots-will-it-take-to-de-400b211d5240

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ10,000 of HIGHER

Per the NYTimes:
"Representative Kevin McCarthy of California has lost 14 consecutive votes for House speaker."

14 ballots and no speaker yet. So this will take at least 15. This market resolves 15.

predicted HIGHER

@LarsDoucet The market structure is capped at 15, not 20. If I try to buy M$999,999 of HIGHER shares (the maximum possible), it only goes up to an estimated value of 15.

predicted HIGHER

@Gabrielle Hm, weird. I was SURE I had set it at 20. Well, if it goes to 15 we start a new market then.

bought Ṁ500 of HIGHER

We're up to 11 ballots!

predicted LOWER

@LarsDoucet - counting roll call votes specifically to elect a speaker, right? Because https://clerk.house.gov/Votes is also tracking quorum and adjournment roll calls.

@MattCWilson Yes, roll call votes to elect a speaker.

If it does wind up hitting 20, I will immediately resolve this market and open a new one.

predicted HIGHER

@LarsDoucet If that happens, please link the new one in the comments!

predicted HIGHER

@brp I'll post it in the comments and in the description!

predicted HIGHER