Will the continental United States’ highest recorded ground temperature of 134F (57C) be broken this summer?
resolved Sep 23

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/discussions/archive_nathilo.php?adate=06/21/2023&sdate=20230621

Heat index or any of those "feels like" notes for humidity-driven states will not count. The recorded high temperature must be captured on the NOAA website and archived.

Resolves YES if any location within the continental United States records a temperature above 134 degrees Fahrenheit (56.667 Celsius) before September 23, 2023.

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predicted NO

Think this market should be much lower…

@parhizj Two more weeks of the dog days, unfortunately. And considering a spot outside of Death Valley was flirting with 130 earlier in the month, I still wouldn't rule it out.

The threshold is high, though, so I understand where you're coming from.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@LBeesley it's a 110 year old record, so the baseline expectation should be that it's very unlikely to be beaten in any given year. Hell, I don't even think it's gotten close (>130F) since then, so it might have been some freak aberration unlikely to repeat for a very long time (or bad equipment/measurement ???). Current forecast Furnace Creek is fairly frigid:


Max temperature ever in August is 4F lower than the July record, and August is the only other month with a >=130F reading. Odds of breaking record should drop to well bellow 5% if we get to the end of August.

Yesterday, Baker, CA, reported a temperature of 129F. Y’all stay hydrated, you hear me, mfs?


bought Ṁ200 of NO

Looking at forecasts for the most likely to beat the record, Furnace Creek, Death Valley, it won't likely happen this weekend (there was some dated forecasts showing slightly above ~130F), but the current forecast looks like it won't happen today/Sunday.

As I don't foresee the record being broken anywhere else in the US, nor any time in the near future looking at the 5-day forecast for Furnace Creek, nor extended future (given it's the peak of summer), I am betting NO. I don't expect to update with any more bets.


predicted YES

@parhizj CA often has late season heat waves in a normal year, though I'm not aware of Death Valley's specific cycles. wouldn't be surprised if this ticked over in Aug, Sept, or even early Oct

predicted NO

@Stralor From my local forecaster this morning: 'the heat dome that is present will be shifting East'

predicted YES

@parhizj hey @LBeesley it's worth pointing out that the wiki article is saying the peak ground temp was 201, not 134 (the peak air temp)

predicted NO

@Stralor the distinction is between "ground temperature" and "ground surface temperature", the market creator refers to ground temperature record of 134 (wmo)

Damn, 126 in Death Valley on Sunday!!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

curiously, that temperature is a record for not just the CONUS but the whole world

@Davida I was not aware. I thought for sure Saudi Arabia or giga Chad would have a higher temp closer to the equator.

But seeing that along the border all the way over to Death Valley has been pushing 115-120 already has me wondering if will get to 130 or more.