Under the new format, the four series in the Wild Card are best of three, leading to a range of 8 to 12 games.
The four Division series are best of five, leading to a range of 12 to 20 games.
The two League Championship Series and the World Series are both best of seven, leading to a range of 8 to 14 games for the LCS and 4 to 7 games for the World Series.
The minimum total games, provided every series is a sweep, is 32 and the maximum total, given every series goes the distance, is 53.
For the record, the total number of games played under the current playoff format from previous years.
2023 - 41 total games, two full series (both LCS) and six sweeps
2022 - 40 total games, one full series (Division) and five sweeps
Given the increased parity among the playoff-eligible teams remaining this late in the season, there is more potential for longer series this October.
EDIT: I have changed the parameters to include the total number of 42, since the median between 32 and 53 is 42.5.
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@DanielTilkin Yes. I started this market before any MLB postseason games were played. I had no way of knowing how competitive or non-competitive any of the series would be up to this point, so yeah, the outcome now should sit at 25% unless for whatever reason the Series is cancelled before Game 4.
There are 64 different possibilities of how the three remaining series (LCS, WS) shake out. Combining with the 27 total games played thus far, there are only 20 that would result in 42 or fewer total games played.
That would put the possible odds of one of the three combinations (for example, three straight sweeps, while unlikely, is a 1:64 chance) totaling 42 or fewer games played during the MLB postseason at 31.25%.
@LBeesley If every game is a coin flip, the odds of three straight sweeps would be 1 in 512, right? (The winner of games 2, 3, and 4 of each series must match the winner of game 1, so 9 games have to go right)
@DanielTilkin I forgot to add that restriction when calculating. I was going simply by the four different possible outcomes of the three series with each series acting independent of the other two, which is how I came to 64.
Fun fact: this market was a lateral away from the original concept for this market, which was trying to tie the total number of runs scored throughout the postseason to the winning Presidential candidate's electoral vote total. However, I think the current neck-and-neck polls reflect a much closer race than the 330+ total runs scored under the current format both in 2023 and 2022
