Awards under this market are only as follows:
American League MVP (Most Valuable Player)
National League MVP (Most Valuable Player)
American League Cy Young
National League Cy Young
Trades to an opposite league will NOT affect eligibility.
For example, in the unlikely event that Shohei Ohtani is traded from the Los Angeles Dodgers to the New York Yankees this offseason, plays for the Yankees and wins the MVP award in the American League, this market would still resolve YES.
In the unlikely event that either of the Cy Young-winning pitchers wins MVP, this would not count as a YES for this market unless they also won the Cy Young Award, which has been won by every pitcher who has been selected as league MVP.
Any of the players among Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal, and Chris Sale must win their respective award from 2024 for this market to resolve YES.
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@LBeesley should have done a numerical market. How many will repeat. I'd be interested in the history on that one.
@JTBooth I’ll do a deep dive this weekend and set it up for 2026. Once the season is over, I’ll lock in next season’s markets for long-term investors who want to get in early
@JTBooth
I've taken a look back at BRef for the history of both the MVP and Cy Young awards.
For MVP, there were 16 instances of repeat Most Valuable Players, but four were achieved by the same man, Barry Bonds (1992-1993, 2001-2002, 2002-2003, 2003-2004), in the 215 instances of awards throughout the past 115 years, to include the Chalmers award in the early 1910s. That calculates to a 7.4% success rate or probability.
For the Cy Young award, this is the 70th year of the award, and there have been 16 instances of the awardee repeating the next season. There were several overlaps because both Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux were responsible for three instances apiece with their four consecutive wins (1999-2002 and 1992-1995 respectively). That factors at a 12.4% success rate or probability of happening.
Aggregated, the likelihood of either the Cy Young award winner or Most Valuable Player repeating looks to be roughly 10% historically. If my math maths.