Which of the following MLB pitchers will finish the 2024 season above 6.0 bWAR?
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13
Ṁ4865
resolved Sep 30
Resolved
YES
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (6.3 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
YES
Chris Sale (6.3 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
YES
Zack Wheeler (5.9 WAR through 9/27)
Resolved
YES
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (5.9 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
YES
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (5.8 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
NO
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals (5.2 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
NO
Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox (5.6 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
NO
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels (3.0 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
NO
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves (4.9 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
NO
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (5.0 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
NO
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros (4.1 bWAR through 9/27)
Resolved
NO
Garret Crochet, Chicago White Sox (3.8 bWAR through 9/27)

WAR is an acronym for a relatively new baseball statistic “Wins Above Replacement.” It’s intended as a single stat to bridge the disconnect in measuring pitchers’ versus hitters’ performance since they operate on two completely different sets of statistics.

Two sites, baseball reference (bWAR) and fangraphs (fWAR), have different formulas to calculate WAR, which shows an approximate number of wins a given player contributes by being on the field as opposed to what is designated a “replacement” player, who represents a “league average” player with a WAR of 0.0.

In general over a full single season, league average starters accumulate 0-2 WAR, All-Star caliber players 3-6, and 6 or above represents an MVP-caliber season.

This question contains the top 10 league wide (AL & NL) but is not limited. I have left options open to add pitchers.

Each pitcher will resolve based on his final reported WAR on baseball reference’s website for the 2024 season. Inter league trades will NOT affect a pitcher’s eligibility since this is not a “qualified” stat such as batting average or earned run average.

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Those with YES for Hunter Greene and Paul Skenes were rewarded for their final starts of the year.

Quick sanity check before resolution on Monday:

My understanding is that WAR is a measure against a benchmark league average similar to OPS+ and ERA+, meaning that if the aggregate changes the league average for better or worse, a player resting for the playoffs could still be affected even marginally. Am I wrong in this? Please let me know. I had intended to resolve starters who are not starting tonight or tomorrow, but I decided to wait until the last games are finished on Monday.

I added Zack Wheeler and updated all current bWAR stats through 9/26*, but I'm too lazy to go back and change it. Several of these around the 6.0 threshold or above have a final start that could put them over the top or sink them before the end of the regular season, so invest with caution! I will resolve this market on 9/30 when all regular season games have concluded.

Added current leader Chris Sale.

Update: Have changed all bWAR for pitchers on this market to reflect their bWAR after conclusion of games through August 31, 2024. Next update will be resolution.

Do with the updated information what you will!

Note: will amend this market to include new entrants into the top 10 for pitcher WAR (bWAR) through the end of August.

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