Which MLB team(s), if any, will finish the 2024 regular season with 100+ wins?
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Plus
34
Ṁ12k
resolved Sep 22
Resolved
YES
No teams will finish with 100+ wins
Resolved
NO
Atlanta Braves (2023: 104 Wins)
Resolved
NO
Baltimore Orioles (2023: 101 Wins)
Resolved
NO
Los Angeles Dodgers (2023: 100 Wins)
Resolved
NO
New York Yankees (Top AL record through May)
Resolved
NO
Philadelphia Phillies (Top NL record through May)
Resolved
NO
Cleveland Guardians (.652 Win % through June 12th, on pace for 105 wins)

Only listing teams that finished with 100 or more wins last season. Will add teams manually since I’m a noob; please request in comments.

Teams in this market will resolve NO early after they lose their 63rd game.

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@LBeesley And the Dodgers also lose #63.

@LBeesley And the Phillies rack up loss #63 . . . .

bought Ṁ293 Los Angeles Dodgers ... NO

Phillies at 91-60, need to go 9-2 or better.

Dodgers at 89-62, need to go 11-0.

Tall orders for the last two teams remaining:

The Phillies must go 11-3 in their final 14 games to finish with 100 wins.

The Dodgers must go 13-1… not impossible, but highly improbable.

@LBeesley Brewers finally managed to lose #63 today, eliminating the slim chance that they could have been the only 100-win team remaining.

@LBeesley And with a 7-1 loss to Boston, the New York Yankees hit 63 losses.

@LBeesley And now the Cleveland Guardians fall, with loss #63.

bought Ṁ350 Cleveland Guardians ... NO

@LBeesley And now Baltimore has reached 63 losses.

bought Ṁ300 Atlanta Braves (2023... NO

@LBeesley The Atlanta Braves can be resolved NO; they have 64 losses.

@SEE Thanks - resolved

This is some of the craziest parity I’ve seen in my lifetime. Several of these teams were easily on pace for 100+, but currently the top teams are on pace for 94-95. Below are the teams with 70+ wins, even if they aren’t in the market explicitly (projected win total for 162 games at their current win % in parentheses):

Philadelphia Phillies, 73 wins (95-96)

Baltimore Orioles, 73 wins (94-95)

Los Angeles Dodgers, 73 wins (94-95)

New York Yankees, 73 wins (94-95)

Cleveland Guardians, 72 wins (94)

Milwaukee Brewers, 72 wins (94)

Minnesota Twins, 70 wins (91-92)

San Diego Padres, 70 wins (90-91)

Any of these teams could get hot and win 30 of their last 40. Or none of them could, which means the “no teams” option is way lower than it should be. If I bet on my own markets, I’d beef it up, but I’ll leave that to you.

Adding a mid season update to mirror my loss market. Here are the remaining games count and required minimum win percentage (WP) reach 100 wins for each team identified so far (WP because “magic number” matches for several teams but the delta is their number of remaining games):

Philadelphia Phillies, 66 games remaining: 0.576 WP (win 38 games or more to reach 100 wins)

Cleveland Guardians, 67 games remaining: 0.627 WP (win 42 games or more to reach 100 wins)

Baltimore Orioles, 66 games remaining: 0.637 WP (win 42 games or more to reach 100 wins)

New York Yankees, 64 games remaining: 0.656 WP (win 42 games or more to reach 100 wins)

Los Angeles Dodgers, 65 games remaining: 0.677 WP (win 44 games or more to reach 100 wins)

Atlanta Braves, 67 games remaining: 0.701 WP (win 47 games or more to reach 100 wins)

I'll note that the current Cleveland record (43-23) is on pace to win 105 games this year.

I got you

Boosting this market after adding Yankees and Phillies. The bad teams be pretty bad, so we may end up with several 100 game-winning teams.

bought Ṁ15 Los Angeles Dodgers ... YES
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