Will human brains be weaker than AI in every way by the end of 2028?
81
1.6kṀ24k
2028
12%
chance

Resolves yes if and only if human brains are unambiguously weaker than AI in every domain.

Resolution process:

  • to propose YES resolution, comment with a reference to an AI that appears to be stronger than humans in every way.

  • to counterpropose NO resolution, comment with a domain the given AI appears to be weaker-than-human within.

  • I or other commenters check if the AI can prove its capability in the challenged domain.

  • If no counterproposed NO can be found that the AI cannot disprove, the question resolves yes.

(At time of market creation, I expect this to resolve yes by 2024.)

This does not require AI to have replaced humans in practical tasks, only that there is at least one single integrated AI that can in fact beat us at absolutely everything.

Note: this includes understanding the human experience. An AI that passes this test would understand humans very dramatically better than most of us understand ourselves, since it'd need to be able to empathize with us across substrates.

Note #2: This is not a per-watt question. The AI is allowed to use arbitrarily much more compute than humans to do the task, as long as it can produce more accurate results than the best trained human in a given task. This will likely require the AI to be one that does active exploration.

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