https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yrys-m5A5A8
resolves to the date that haiti is estimated to have passed 0.8 on the HDI's metrics; under current resolution plan, in order to resolve, the HDI must be released by the UN. I don't already have deep familiarity with the HDI so I don't know how hard it will be to resolve this to an exact date; if it turns out to be particularly difficult to nail it down within the year, it will resolve to the date the HDI report which puts haiti at 0.8 or above is released.
for convenience:
feb 20th, 2023 = 1 mo
dec 29, 2023 = 11mo
jan 1 2024 = 12mo
2024 = 1 year = 12mo
2025 = 2 year = 24mo
2026 = 3 year = 36mo
2027 = 4 year = 48mo
2028 = 5 year = 60mo
2029 = 6 year = 72mo
2030 = 7 year = 84mo
2031 = 8 year = 96mo
2032 = 9 year = 108mo
2040 = 17 year = 204mo
2050 = 27 year = 324mo
2060 = 37 year = 444mo
2100 = 78 year = 936mo
2200 = 178 year = 2136mo
1,000I'll think about it more. Off the cuff, what would you suggest - in particular, what set of criteria might reasonably describe coverage of ways it could change that would warrant an N/A resolution? under what conditions might it be reasonable to change the 0.8 threshold?
I picked 0.8 by reading the list of top countries, but I don't want to simply normalize to "top" at resolve time, since that could be quite a long way away.
@L I don't know -- it's difficult.
"An organization called the United Nations Development Programme publishes something called the Human Development Index, which rates countries on a scale of 0 to 1, with 1 being best" has the advantage of being a bright-line rule (so you won't have ambiguity) but the disadvantage of being an imperfect proxy for the thing you really want.
"The thing works like the present-day HDI, and operates on the same scale" is what you really want; maybe you trust your future self to make a judgement call.
@Boklam As an aside: my prediction is that Haiti will remain poor and ill-developed for the foreseeable future (say 50+ years; beyond that I dare not predict) and that after 50 years, the HDI may or may not exist in anything resembling its current form, but even if it does the numbers won't be sensibly comparable with today's numbers...
If someone provides a serious critique of the HDI by the end of 2023 that convinces me HDI is not the metric to query, and I make another market about that metric, I reserve the right to resolve this one N/A for that reason by the end of 2023.
I also might want to do this anyway due to realizing that a "lowest HDI in the world" market might better query what I seek. My time limit on that one is end of january 2023; if I haven't made a "lowest in the world" market by end of jan, I won't resolve this one N/A if I proceed to make a "lowest in the world" later.
If someone convinces me either of these are a bad reason to resolve N/A, I will clearly commit to not doing so.
recreated from previous market with a better calibrated "low" date.