https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/will-google-have-an-active-agi-safe

Criteria:

• This market resolves N/A if the linked market resolves YES.

• at time of this market being created, VTF is 199.90, and GOOG is 95.31, so GOOG/VTF 47.6%.

• If the linked market resolves false, will GOOG/VTF decrease to 38% or less over the following year?

Note: resolution criteria open to changes to more accurately match the intent of the market until the end of 2022, in case I've designed the criteria catastrophically terribly. Specifically, is there a much better way to normalize GOOG's market-relative share price? If VTF moves a lot relative to market as a whole, then uh, I misunderstood what VTF is, and this will resolve N/A. Please warn me if this is likely.

I will compensate for splits; if there's a stock split, I'll calculate what GOOG-2022 share chunks would have been, rather than GOOG-2024, and normalize that by VTF price instead.