https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/will-google-have-an-active-agi-safe
Criteria:
This market resolves N/A if the linked market resolves YES.
at time of this market being created, VTF is 199.90, and GOOG is 95.31, so GOOG/VTF 47.6%.
If the linked market resolves false, will GOOG/VTF decrease to 38% or less over the following year?
Note: resolution criteria open to changes to more accurately match the intent of the market until the end of 2022, in case I've designed the criteria catastrophically terribly. Specifically, is there a much better way to normalize GOOG's market-relative share price? If VTF moves a lot relative to market as a whole, then uh, I misunderstood what VTF is, and this will resolve N/A. Please warn me if this is likely.
I will compensate for splits; if there's a stock split, I'll calculate what GOOG-2022 share chunks would have been, rather than GOOG-2024, and normalize that by VTF price instead.
1,000
3.00@StevenK ...hmm. I think I'd regret the wording but the wording meant end of the year, so it would resolve NO.
@L I'm unclear on the timeline. If the linked question resolves NO, it will be early 2024. Is this question about what happens in the year after that resolution? But it closes at the end of 2023 already.
@StevenK oh huh. I seem to have been off by one in the dates - I thought the other market closed at the end of 2023. I intended mine to close at the end of 2024. but somehow I messed that up. How do you feel about resolving both of these confusions at once by simply making both markets close at the same time, and measuring the way google stonks change between this market's creation and both markets' simultaneous close?
@L I googled VTF and it looks like you meant VTI, is that right? Also, I'm not 100% sure I understand the resolution yet. The "over the following year" in the description now refers to the year 2023, right? So it's "conditional on the linked market resolving YES, will GOOG/VTI be under .38 at the end of 2023"?