Will there be a serious effort to repeal the 22nd Amendment or redefine it as only applying to consecutive terms?
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Donald Trump will only be the second President in U.S. history to serve two non-consecutive terms, and the first to do so after the passage of the 22nd Amendment, which provides that a person shall only be elected President twice. It's possible an attempt will be made to remove the constraints of the 22nd Amendment whether through repeal or redefinition by the courts, that it only applies to consecutive terms. This can resolve yes if:

1) A bill is introduced in the US Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment (regardless of outcome)

2) An op-ed is published in a major newspaper (>100k subscribers), by a current or past federal government official, notable academic, or major media figure, arguing that the 22nd Amendment applies only to consecutive terms

3) A paper is published in a top-20 legal journal (W&L Law Journal Rankings) arguing that the 22nd amendment applies only to consecutive terms.

4) Donald Trump, one of his administration members, or an external advisor specifically and seriously calls for the repeal or redefinition of the 22nd Amendment (and not just that it would be nice if Trump could serve a third term).

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What if there is an op-ed that it should be repealed outright?

bought Ṁ10 YES

How will this resolve if an op-ed in a serious newspaper merely suggests it should be altered or repealed, without describing a specific vehicle?

Really dislike the second sufficient criterion, doesn’t seem like a serious effect if one random provocateur writes an op-ed!

@CrumbsTime How would you re-write it?

@Kynakwado I would just do 1) and 4) (but only very top officials & Trump, no external advisors)

@Siebe I agree only 1) and 4) actually make sense for the question title. I think there's a decent argument 1) should even go further than merely "introduce", as there are all sorts of nutty things that technically get introduced by random congresspeople that will never see the light of day. Introducing is at least a fairly objective measure though.

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