Donald Trump will only be the second President in U.S. history to serve two non-consecutive terms, and the first to do so after the passage of the 22nd Amendment, which provides that a person shall only be elected President twice. It's possible an attempt will be made to remove the constraints of the 22nd Amendment whether through repeal or redefinition by the courts, that it only applies to consecutive terms. This can resolve yes if:
1) A bill is introduced in the US Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment (regardless of outcome)
2) An op-ed is published in a major newspaper (>100k subscribers), by a current or past federal government official, notable academic, or major media figure, arguing that the 22nd Amendment applies only to consecutive terms
3) A paper is published in a top-20 legal journal (W&L Law Journal Rankings) arguing that the 22nd amendment applies only to consecutive terms.
4) Donald Trump, one of his administration members, or an external advisor specifically and seriously calls for the repeal or redefinition of the 22nd Amendment (and not just that it would be nice if Trump could serve a third term).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,866 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,050 | |
| 3 | Ṁ299 | |
| 4 | Ṁ254 | |
| 5 | Ṁ242 |
People are also trading
If this wasn't resolved already I think I would resolve it now.
Trump Won’t Rule Out Seeking Third Term, Says There Are Ways
So it's this just "loyalty theater" without damage - making a costless signal of loyalty? Or could this pave a way to build a platform for a coup?
(It sure as hell won't pass)
The scenario I worry about:
1) Significant amount of Republican legislators vote in favour, fully knowing it won't pass, and not wanting to face Trump's ire
2) Those who do vote against it get punished/disfavored
3) At the end of the term, there's a lack of common knowledge that "coups are bad actually", resulting in only limited pushback
Though more likely this bill will be part of this dynamic but only as one of many loyalty tests
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) has introduced a bill to amend the 22nd Amendment to allow Donald Trump to run for a third term. This seems pretty clearcut, but I guess it's not repealing the 22nd Amendment entirely. Resolving as yes.
@Kynakwado I don't know if I'd consider it 'serious' yet but I'm glad I was notified of the information for a price of m500
@Siebe I agree only 1) and 4) actually make sense for the question title. I think there's a decent argument 1) should even go further than merely "introduce", as there are all sorts of nutty things that technically get introduced by random congresspeople that will never see the light of day. Introducing is at least a fairly objective measure though.