When will I be able to summon a robotaxi in Manhattan?
9
125Ṁ1672028
November 5, 2027
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
6%
By the end of 2025
13%
By the end of 2026
20%
By the end of 2027
61%
Later than 12/31/2027
Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to the date when I can summon a fully autonomous robotaxi in Manhattan without a human safety driver present. The robotaxi must be generally available for public use, allowing me to request a ride through a publicly accessible platform or service, and the service must be available across at least half of Manhattan’s land area.
Clarifications:
The options are not mutually exclusive, e.g. if a robotaxi becomes available on 3/1/2026, “By the end of 2026” will resolve YES and “By the end of 2027” will resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?
75% chance
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
When will waymo first be available in New York City
Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?
80% chance
Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?
78% chance
Will I be able to take a waymo between two points in manhattan by the end of July?
59% chance
Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
Will Robotaxis roll out in Austin as planned?
28% chance
Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?
12% chance
Will New York City have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
17% chance