
[Redwood Research: Kshitij/Dmz project]: Will the paper be submitted to NeurIPS (may 17th deadline)?
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resolved Apr 15
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[Redwood Research] How many weeks (starting from 5/29, inclusive) until Gabe/Kshitij have solid top of sandwich results?4
Will the number of ArXiv papers (min. 100 likes) posted on Twitter decline >50% in the next year?22%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in two weeks?15%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one month?25%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Open+Read (and later Open+Write?) in two weeks?60%
Will someone be confirmed to have deciphered Cipher 1 of the Cipher Challenge before close of the challenge?48%
Related markets
[Redwood Research] How many weeks (starting from 5/29, inclusive) until Gabe/Kshitij have solid top of sandwich results?4
Will the number of ArXiv papers (min. 100 likes) posted on Twitter decline >50% in the next year?22%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in two weeks?15%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one month?25%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Open+Read (and later Open+Write?) in two weeks?60%
Will someone be confirmed to have deciphered Cipher 1 of the Cipher Challenge before close of the challenge?48%