Will Nintendo release a physical cartridge for Pokémon Scarlet/Violet with DLC included in 2023?
Basic
10
Ṁ4802
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Pokémon Sword and Shield received a two-part paid DLC "Expansion Pass". The first part, The Isle of Armor, released in June 2020, and the second part, The Crown Tundra, released in October 2020. In November 2020, they then released new physical cartridges that each include the base game (either Sword or Shield) and both DLC packs.

Nintendo has recently announced that Pokémon Scarlet and Violet will similarly be receiving a two-part paid DLC, The Hidden Treasure of Area Zero, with Part 1 releasing in Fall 2023 and Part 2 in Winter 2023.

This market resolves to "Yes" if a cartridge version of Pokémon Scarlet and Violet with both DLC parts included is made available for purchase before the end of 2023. It resolves to "No" if no such cartridge is released or made available for purchase by the end of the year.

This still resolves to "No" even if:

  • The aforementrioned cartridge is announced but isn't made available for purchase before 2024, or

  • Nintendo instead releases some kind of bundle deal where the cartridge still contains only the base game but comes with a code to download the DLC.

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predicted NO

Well. The game is out now, and all sources say the second DLC isn’t on the cartridge but is instead a download.

Per a strict reading of the resolution criteria, this resolves as “No”, since the criteria said both DLC need to be included.

Apparently I’m behind the times. Nintendo announced the bundle cartridge back in late September, and it’s going to release in November.

Ack, bought too soon. Looks like this cartridge only includes the first part of the DLC on-cartridge, and the second part requires a download.

I’m open to arguments on how best to resolve this market. Currently I’m leaning towards resolving this as “No” because the criteria said “both DLC parts included”.

I’ve sold my shares and taken my losses early as to not bias my resolution.

predicted NO

@Kronopath With the criteria as written, I agree that NO makes the most sense.