Open until this evening only! And to prove I actually generated it ahead of time, here's a hash of (an obfuscated version of) the answer: a78224bb172e18dc95ef7987b5e578de76b91522c77e29ff9d9e00b89c9e1c49
(The range is inclusive of both 1 and 10.)
Chosen
8%
General Comments
Good job keeping it kind of even. Here's the proof of the answer (8):
$ echo "The number I generated is the number of tentacles on a wiggly octopus. Not a squid, squids are losers." | shasum -a 256
a78224bb172e18dc95ef7987b5e578de76b91522c77e29ff9d9e00b89c9e1c49 -.
I'll be honest: my intention was to bet all my money on 8 just before the market closed and take a personal profit since I knew the answer, but then I got distracted and forgot. Oh well. Hope the winners enjoyed.
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@Kronopath "I'll be honest: my intention was to bet all my money on 8 just before the market closed and take a personal profit since I knew the answer"
In a fixed payout market that wouldn't have hurt any other bettors, just would've allowed you to take whatever liquidity was left on the table. In a parimeutel market like this one, that would've significantly reduced the payouts for other bettors, probably reducing in a net loss.
So, thanks for not doing that! When I do these kinds of markets I generally just promise not to bet on them as part of the description for that reason.
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I admit that I did not do it out of the goodness of my heart but only because I was distracted. I have no idea how parimutuel payouts work (thanks for the explanation), and if you check my account history you’ll see that most of the markets I’ve created are me just fucking with Manifold in order to find the best way to earn M$.
I’ll keep that in mind for next time though.
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@Kronopath I'm simultaneously interested in occasionally farming the daily M$100, but also committed to maintaining a flawless record of market resolution (in the sense that I will never resolve against the criteria stated in my market descriptions or resolve markets deceptively to take other traders' money). So, my created market history is pretty boring at the moment.
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Yeah, I’m also not interested in being too dishonest, but that doesn’t preclude me from making markets that are totally (if transparently) unfair to anyone but me and resolving them immediately.
If I ever try to pull this sort of stunt again in the future I’ll probably make it clear that I’m going to bet in favour of the right answer shortly before closing, “buyer beware”!
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I feel like this is one of those cases where people (including me) are going to think we're set up for a guaranteed win due to the predicted payouts, and then be disappointed when the market doesn't actually work that way because we're used to fixed payout markets by now.
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If you don't mean an *integer* between 1 and 10, we're all going to lose some mana here. But given my uncertainty about whether that's what you meant...
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I'm resisting my temptation to troll you folks and say it was 4.25145 or something. Yes, it's an integer.
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