Will resolve 'na' if Krantz fails to go on a 'proper date' with Ben Goertzle by 2030.
Will resolve 'yes' if work stemming from a 'proper date' between Krantz and Ben results in a Nobel Prize for Philosophy (it would be the first one).
Will resolve 'no' if a 'proper date' occurs and neither Krantz nor Ben win the Nobel Prize in Philosophy before 2050.
Proper date defined:
https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-aella-and-i-go-on-a-proper-date
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@LiamZ I don't know if you just weren't hugged enough as a child, but I think you've got an unhealthy obsession with trolling me.
I'm autistic, so you're not hurting my feelings. It's really just creating noise for the rational discourse. Please stop commenting on my predictions. Feel free to continue betting though.
@Krantz I’m not trolling you or trying to hurt your feelings. This popped up in new like any other market. The constant delusions of grandeur, the conspiratorial thinking about twitter porn bots, cyber stalking of people like Yudkowsky, and many other aspects of thought patterns in these posts are genuinely worrisome and there’s no way to communicate that in a way that is genuinely helpful as far as I can tell.
Getting feedback about misalignment between your beliefs and reality in the form of constantly losing mana doesn’t seem to be enough of a signal and this path could lead to tragedy.
I won’t comment again but hope you have someone in your life who can help you.
@LiamZ You seem to think I have delusions of grandeur. You seem to be appealing to the ad hominen fallacy by implying that is a narcissistic attribute of mine. That I believe I am somehow intrinsically better or more intelligent than everyone else. This is not the case. I do not think I'm intrinsically better or more capable of influencing the world than anyone else.
I do believe I can influence the world, but that belief is justified by a more general belief than anyone could change the world if they were curious enough, listened to enough individuals on the internet charitably and actually tried to do something about it. I believe you could also change the world if you wanted to. I just don't think you are curious enough. I think you are lacking the will.
I am worried you (and many others) are suffering from a more dangerous delusion. The delusion of hopelessness. The delusion that no single person can control the circumstances that lead the world. I believe you (and many others) have been intentionally delusioned by others that find it easier to manipulate a population of individuals that truly believe they are just passengers and major world decisions are beyond their ability to control.
If you were correct and genuinely trying to help me, you would simply write a valid argument (within the demonstration mechanism) that compels me to confront any possible contradiction in my beliefs. That's how proofs work. I don't think you can do that because I don't believe that a set of propositions, meeting that criteria, exist.
I do appreciate you not making any more comments though. Thanks.