Will I be a regular smoker by the end of my PhD?
4
79
แน€160
2027
47%
chance

I will in a first approximation count smoking at least two cigarettes per day on average over the last month of my PhD as sufficient and necessary for "yes", but might take some liberty in resolving the question according to its spirit rather than its letter.

I have up until now (April 2024) smoked roughly 10 cigarettes in my life.

My PhD is expected to finish in the fall of 2027.

My intention is to start smoking exactly one cigarette per month.

Upate May 6th 2024: I just smoked half a cigarette. This is the first time I smoked since April 6th.

Get แน€200 play money