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MANIFOLD
Will the mentioned market get more than 10k mana total volume?
23
Ṁ450Ṁ41k
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
YES

https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/will-the-mentioned-market-get-more-a2cffb6f2bec?r=S29uZ29MYW5kd2Fsa2Vy

Technically those two markets are not selfreferential. But they are a loop. Interesting, whether they will be delisted and the rule about delisting propagates to any complexity of a loop.

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It already got more than 10K total volume, so this resolves YES

predictedYES

@JosephNoonan i think it might be able to go down if i sell, unless im wrong

predictedYES

@DeadRhino I think it can only go up, even if you sell.

@JosephNoonan yea after further testing your right

predictedYES

@DeadRhino It does say 'total amount bought or sold' when you hover over the 'i' button beside 'Total volume'. I wonder if it'd be counted double if you buy and then sell.

@JosephNoonan I had asked the creator, who said that neither market will be closed until the listed close time, to allow both a chance to meet their criteria.

i will pay any new traders 10 mana to trade

predictedYES

My free mana 😭 You robbed me of my free mana, which certainly was mine, just that I hadn't picked it up yet.

If one of the markets meet its criterion, will you resolve it early? Or will you leave them open and determine if they meet their criteria at or after close?

And to confirm, 'total traders' refers to 'traders' (which does not decrease), not 'positions' (which can decrease), right?

predictedNO

@XComhghall both markets resolve after the closure of both.

Yes. Total traders - the value which cannot decrease.

predictedNO

@XComhghall with early resolution there would be a loophole with preventing a second market from ever reaching its target.

I want to bet on the markets, so I forbid to myself such actions.

@XComhghall aren't you too confident to push this up to 80%? The second market currently has only 74 total mana volume out of 10000.

@KongoLandwalker I see. Thanks.

As to the other market, I am pretty sure that a single user could push the total volume to 10k?

predictedNO

@XComhghall But you have to know which direction to bet. Waiting the whole week you might forget about this market.

predictedNO

@XComhghall Yes. The total volume market can be crushed by a single person, but the other market has to have 20 traders. It might be a last second event, whether 20 traders are reached.

predictedYES

@KongoLandwalker Yeah, I do often forget about markets 😂 That's why I only bet to 80%.