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In this semester I had 9 subjects with 34 total credits of difficulty.

I multiplied the rates of students who got A, and got the probability of random student getting all A in this semester. 0.0007

(That assumes students do not have correlation between subjects. Inaccurate, but easy to calculate first approximation)

For the next semester I have 11 subjects with 39 credits of difficulty and 0.0003 probability of random student getting all A.

I would say the next semester is more than twice harder. But I cannot make a market-continuation, negative balance.

I have finished with all A!

Did this market produce additional motivation? Yes.

Was this market % meaningful? No. I made a lot of updates in the comments, but low popularity of the market made those useless. The market did not react.

Why do you care about your grades? Serious question. My undergrad assigned grades but looking at them was optional. I'd spent 12 years considering A's a by-product of doing that thing I do, so figured, good to go without looking. It all worked out. Not saying it will for you. But is analysis of your own grades the best place to spend your precious mental resources?

I've taken good graduate-level courses in statistics, it doesn't make me a Ph.D. candidate but I'm not an indigo child moon dreamer either.

@ClubmasterTransparent

1) The person who gets the best grades gets a scholarship, which he can spend however he wants.

2) It is a game. It does not take me a lot of time, compared to other students: Usually people spend like 6x more time than me for the same exam/test preparation. I do not "care", I just find it easy enough to play this game. As in any game if I fail I can say "it's just a game, I am ok with E".

3) Games are part of my personality. I play all kind of games: sports, challenges, playground, predictions, boardgames, computer games. If there is healthy competition in something, I would love to play. For example, currently I am learning one-arm muscle up with the same fun. https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-kongolandwalker-learn-to-do-on?r=S29uZ29MYW5kd2Fsa2Vy

4) It is fun to see prediction market changes depending on events.

5)

But is analysis of your own grades the best place to spend your precious mental resources?

I do not use grades as analysis of my understanding of material. Usually I give myself my own two evaluations (also similar to "A to FX" scale): φ whether I understood the subject better than others and ψ whether I understood the full material course. Sometimes all three grades give different values. Quite often what i recieve from teachers is higher than my φ ψ, so by optimising those values (actual understanding) I overshoot teachers' expectations.

And I do not spend that much on this market, just an update per two days.

6)

indigo child moon dreamer

I do not know what you were trying to convey in the last sentence.

7)

good to go without looking

With this i strongly disagree. Human brain is a feedback-loop system. Without feedback such systems lose stability. Applying to a human, losing stability would be either Dunning–Kruger effect or Impostor syndrome. Just looking at grades is enough for subconcious to understand how big mistakes were made. Looking does not equal stressing out, so it has zero downsides to look.

A in diffQ. So, this market resolution depends only on the team project result. My teammates has to finish one of his filters, I need to implement one more, but even without bits the projects could be considered complete and functional.

@KongoLandwalker according to the stats on the uni website 80% of students pass the team project and 20% fail.

48/50 points in diffQ written part.

Had a resit on diffQ today. This time all tasks used the knowledge of the semester, And i think i correctly solved all. But again, the official duration of the exam was 1:40, but it took us 2:30 to finish all 4 problems. My eval of getting A is 60%.

The oral part is postponed again.

So i have 60% belief in A of diffQ and 97% belief in A of the team project.

0.97*0.6 ~=0.6

If i didn't have negative balance and the promise not to trade here i would bet it up.

I have done so many cool features for the second project, that i am 97% sure in A.

А for the first project.

With the second it is quite a lot of work ahead. I have decided to rewrite it from zero, because in the current paradigm each function takes 4h+ to write due to spaghetti of pointers that my teammate did (its a project for two, the other team consists of 3 people, because there were 5 who signed up for the subject).

I will remake it into object oriented. Quite possibly I will reduce the code from 700 lines to 300, and then it will be easier to add new functionality.

These pointers were pain, because some of them were pointing to const, thus dereferenced values could not be edited. And the whole point of the project is to modify incoming structures.

One project done, mark yet unknown.

Started the second project.

Last exam is on tuesday.

Today was a surprise.

I got A in statistics.

Then went to the oral part of the differential Equations. The teacher said that if i pass th oral part perfectly, then i will have B, because i made a mistake in written part. Instead, We agreed that she places FX, so I am eligible for a second try.

So, diffQ and 2 projects left.

AAAAAUUU

Todays exam was a chaos. I completed one out of four tasks.

For the whole semester the lecturer (task composer) were saying, that the exam will be easy. "Everybody will pass on the first try, and then you will be free. That's the easiest exam in the semester".

I left the examination room the second to last after 3 hours. (The exam was meant to last exactly 2, but when controlling teacher understood sth is wrong with the papers we recieved we were allowed to stay longer).

In total I filled 8 pages.

(One guy said he filled 16 pages).

In the middle of first and third tasks some things with abs() and ln() appeared, which basically meant that the Oxy plane had to be split into 5 regions and each region had to be solved separately. And that is a huge volume: If i were to solve everything up to the logical end, I would spend like 3 more hours.

In the second task the Cauchy problem did not have a solution. Which is a bad exam design, because in this case you are not testing whether the student knows how to solve it. I wrote a proof that the point is out of regions, where the function could potentially exist. Did not have the time to solve generally (without the Cauchy limitation).

The 4th task was trivial. That also must be some mistake. No complex numbers, no integration. Just the simpliest of the formulas we learnt.

So, 8 papers, 1st 75% done - unfinished due to volume. 2nd 25% done but unfinished due to volume but with a proof that I would not find a solution for the second subquestion even if solved the first subquestion. 3rd 25% done but unfinished due to volume, 4 solved.

In sum that is 225%/400%. If we count the proof like the completion of the second part of task 2, then 275%/400%.

So technically I must have A. You know why? Because after listening to other students I know, that I managed to move further into solution, than anybody. If I get E for "solving only one task", then everyone else must get FX. If they do rescaling to make the average mark C, then due to points deflation my mark has to be A.

I recieved a letter about tomorrow's exam. The "writing" part will be writing a program in R language, which after the voting in our group with 100% of votes was announced "The worst programming language".

@KongoLandwalker there is a big chance I will not get a fair mark. Because if the teacher thinks the tasks were easy then it is highly likely she is solving them incorrectly.

(The probability that one teacher does something wrong is a lot higher, than every student does something wrong. I have met several teachers in the past that were not qualified for their subject.)

Upd. I got a fair number of points but decided to go for A.

I am exhausted and have a headache.

@KongoLandwalker hugs

Got new A today.

U stands for yet Unknown. Total:

A,A,A,A,U,U,U,U

50% done :-)

Got a new A today. 3 exams left this week and 2 projects till february.

@KongoLandwalker How are you feeling about them?

@oh 2 closest exams I feel confident with, but statistics (friday) are expected to be very hard. Our lecturer and seminarist were teching almost unconnected stuff ( one - pure theory, mathematical proofs, which cannot be used to solve practical problems, and the other - pure programming, where we do not even understand what those functioncalls do, thus we can solve something, but we cannot elaborate how or why we do any of the algorithms). Looks like nobody in my group understood at least half of the contents, and we have no idea what we will be doing on the exam. (Also, that course is supposed to be taught after probability, but something was messed up when the study program was registered). I usually remember everything I understand (read lectures once and am ready for the exam), but in this course I understand little.

The programming projects I do not worry about.

With statistics if the exam is failed there will be 2 more attempts available this session. If I get A during secondary attempts, that counts towards YES resolution.

There is also an opportunity to "repeat the course" next year, but I will count that as FX.

@KongoLandwalker If you pass the exam with less than an A, can and will you retake it? How much might taking it once increase your chances of doing better on future attempts?

Also, go you for your progress so far! It’s impressive. :)

@oh

Btw, I have just found the stats of marks for the statistics course (but then were different examinators):

A 34,9 %

B 10,8 %

C 21,7 %

D 18,1 %

E 12,0 %

FX 2,5 %

(Those are final marks, after all retakes. I am very sure there would be 20%FX if the stats were only for the first attempt. That is why the distribution is bimodal, part of students who got B go to improve their mark)

If it is very hard and I get B and I feel, that the likelyhood of incresing th mark is less than 30% for me, I might not go for a retake. I do not need straight A's, but I want to be the best in my group.

(but If I get C I 80% will go for a retake.)

If it turns out, that the project I made during the semester got low points, it might be impossible to get A. (The final mark uses a formula, one of arguements is the points of the project).

@oh Recieved the list of questions and topics... My chance NOT to get FX the first try is like 2%. Very huge volume. And the fact that I study abroad on a non-native language will make it more difficult. 2 days to learn to recollect 243 answers. :-(

@KongoLandwalker So the test only consists of a subset of those questions? Are you memorizing the answers or trying to understand the concepts?

Wow that’s crazy

@oh They only gave the questions today? So if you get FX, then you’d have more to revise and then you’d retake it next week?

@oh

1) those 243 are only the oral part. There will be also written/programming part.

2) Trying to understand, but in this case I have to memorise a lot just to know how each thing is called and what to recollect when I see a question.

3) No, the questions were available much earlier, but I was learning other projects and my hands were too busy to reach it.

4) The retake will be 2 weeks after.

@KongoLandwalker Good luck!