Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
10
291
450
Dec 31
50%
chance

Manifold plays white.

Kongo plays black.

Predictor chess.
The game mechanics benefit the player, who predicts opponent's behaviour better.

0. Predictor chess is played with the ordinary chess set: 8 by 8 field and 32 pieces.
1. Game is divided into ply. Each ply is a game state, achieved after simultaneous processing and execution of both players' orders.
2. Before each ply eligible players commit a rule. (In this market black publishes their encrypted move first). The message contains primary and conditional move.
Primary move is a familiar ordinary move. Example: e2-e4.
Conditional move is a set of a) prediction of what the opponent's primary move will happen at the same ply, and b) how to respond to that. Example: if e7-e5 then Nb1-c3.
Conditional move Path cannot be occupied by a piece before the new ply. (You cannot order a classical capture with a conditional move.)
3. Path is a set of all the squares the piece visits when executing its movement, including the target square and not including the starting square. We say that all pieces slide, visiting all squares inbetween. Knight cannot jump over pieces, it slides in a Z pattern.
3.1 We say that paths intersect if they share at least 1 common square.

4. Move orders are processed the following way:
4.1 Primary moves are added to the set of moves to be done (MTBD). Conditional moves are added if their prediction was correct. This always results in a set of length [2, 4] inclusive.
4.2 If pieces attempted to capture each other, both are annihilated and their moves are substracted from mtbd. At this point mtbd might have a length of [0, 4].
4.3 For each move from mtbd draw its path on the board. If different color pieces' paths intersect, both are annihilated and substracted from mtbd. If there are several intersections, (for example, your conditional move crosses both primary and conditional move of your opponent, or all 4 pieces cross a single square) then all the associated pieces are annihilated.
4.4 At this moment only independent moves are supposed to stay in mtbd. All the pieces which are left execute their movements/captures.
4.5 All 4 moves and both predictions (even if incorrect) are highlighted on the map and the new ply is published.

5. If not stated otherwise, normal chess rules apply.

6. En passant can be only performed as a conditional move to the current opponent's primary pawn double move.

Elaboration:

  1. Capturing a rook in a long castling does not affect the double-move of the king. (0-0-0 Rb1 will result in both rooks being annihalated and a king standing on c1.)

    Market Management.

  1. Buy Yes shares to become an eligible white team player.

  2. Kongo plays black and has to publish his move order first, cyphered.

  3. When the time dedicated for a ply ends, I will look through commited moves and take the move from the highest shareholder from white team. If highest did not commit a move, then the second highest is picked and so on.

  4. I will actively prevent sabotage and metagaming, even if I would need to contradict already established rules of the market and rewrite them.

  5. Each ply (boardstate picture and most recent orders) will be published in the comments.

Recent update:

  1. Added Elaboration 1 about castling.

  2. Replaced "target square" with "Path" in rule 2. That change prevents discovered instant attacks.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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White

Qg4, if(Bb7) then Bb5

Black

move3:Nc6,if(d4)then(Ba6)

Black's move 4:

6d8d04bf65306d156e7b208fc3e912be66999f96f457ff32dbc137df7769e782

White can commit a move before 24:00 friday London time.

@KongoLandwalker Is Friday the deadline or is this just copied from last move notice?

@ChristopherRandles Friday is the deadline. Busy weeks start at uni, so I am giving more time, knowing I have a chance of not checking the market often.

White

c3, if Qa5 then Bc4

Black

move2:b7-b6,if(b2-b3)then(g7-g5)

Black's move 3:

577c53f8fab8c76e3eb8610bc663963b8a0bd6f3d629b8e9763770db35802148

@traders White can commit a move before 24:00 friday London time.

@KongoLandwalker Qg4, if(Bb7) then Bb5

@KongoLandwalker Just checking you saw above move being posted. No rush only 2 days ago.

Black's move 2

efca5c70752483927f75433a2c34a5163cf0e7fd01ff772b4efe20e3d4a07442

White can commit a move before 24:00 monday London time.

@traders White can commit a move before 24:00 monday London time.

@KongoLandwalker

c3, if Qa5 then Bc4

@traders White has commited a move:

Primary e2-e3. If b7-b6 then d2-d4

Black has commited:

c7-c5,if(e4)then(b7-b5)

Result of the ply is on the picture. Green - white. Red - black. Blue - prediction. Arrow with a circle - conditional.

https://lichess.org/editor/rnbqkbnr/pp1ppppp/8/2p5/8/4P3/PPPP1PPP/RNBQKBNR_w_KQkq_-_0_1?color=white

Does the rule « a player wins when the opponent’s king or queen is removed from the board » apply ? I don’t see it now, if not what’s the winning condition ? « If not stated otherwise, normal chess rules apply », but then what’s a checkmate in this variation ?

@Mich I removed the rule about the queen. It did not feel necessary, was just increasing the ruleset and complexity, and it was pointed that sacrificing a queen would be an instant loss (sabotage).

Winning criteria is not stated, so it comes from ordinary chess: failing to defend a king is a loss.

If under a check, you have to do something to prevent potential capture (move away/block the sightline/do appropriate conditional interception). If cannot prevent potential capture, that is a checkmate.

@Mich what about the first move? Do you keep your's or take Christopher's? 3 days end today

@KongoLandwalker So this means putting yourself under a check is illegal etc ?

Since this variation is more complicated, I think it may be better to just say capture the king to win and if both kings die on the same ply it’s a draw, to avoid having too much complications and shenanigans just on whether a move is or is not legal

@Mich i will notify when i see a suggested move is illegal and explain why

Also finally Knight still jumps ?

@Mich rule 3 is about knight

@KongoLandwalker Oh sorry

« Conditional move Path canot be occupied by a piece before the new ply. (You cannot order a classical capture with a conditional move.) » so if a pawn is blocked by a piece, you can’t say you’ll advance it conditional on the piece leaving the square in front of him ?

@Mich

if a pawn is blocked by a piece, you can’t say you’ll advance it conditional on the piece leaving the square in front of him

Correct

@KongoLandwalker Okay Thanks for the clarification

@ChristopherRandles sent me a DM to which I only replied a few hours ago. I kind of didn’t really understand the fact that I was still the one deciding for move one after the rules change and kinda missed the fact that the delay was no longer a week. Can you tell me until when (hour in time zone) I have to make a move ? I know what I would play if I had to send it right now but I’d like to see if @ChristopherRandles says anything before, if he answers before I have to play

@Mich until 24:00 London time

@Mich Bc4 is a movement through a blocked path

@KongoLandwalker Woops my bad

Primary e2-e3

If b7-b6 then d2-d4