Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
11
568
Dec 31
64%
chance

Manifold plays white.

Kongo plays black.

Predictor chess.
The game mechanics benefit the player, who predicts opponent's behaviour better.

0. Predictor chess is played with the ordinary chess set: 8 by 8 field and 32 pieces.
1. Game is divided into ply. Each ply is a game state, achieved after simultaneous processing and execution of both players' orders.
2. Before each ply eligible players commit a rule. (In this market black publishes their encrypted move first). The message contains primary and conditional move.
Primary move is a familiar ordinary move. Example: e2-e4.
Conditional move is a set of a) prediction of what the opponent's primary move will happen at the same ply, and b) how to respond to that. Example: if e7-e5 then Nb1-c3.
Conditional move Path cannot be occupied by a piece before the new ply. (You cannot order a classical capture with a conditional move.)
3. Path is a set of all the squares the piece visits when executing its movement, including the target square and not including the starting square. We say that all pieces slide, visiting all squares inbetween. Knight cannot jump over pieces, it slides in a Z pattern.
3.1 We say that paths intersect if they share at least 1 common square.

4. Move orders are processed the following way:
4.1 Primary moves are added to the set of moves to be done (MTBD). Conditional moves are added if their prediction was correct. This always results in a set of length [2, 4] inclusive.
4.2 If pieces attempted to capture each other, both are annihilated and their moves are substracted from mtbd. At this point mtbd might have a length of [0, 4].
4.3 For each move from mtbd draw its path on the board. If different color pieces' paths intersect, both are annihilated and substracted from mtbd. If there are several intersections, (for example, your conditional move crosses both primary and conditional move of your opponent, or all 4 pieces cross a single square) then all the associated pieces are annihilated.
4.4 At this moment only independent moves are supposed to stay in mtbd. All the pieces which are left execute their movements/captures.
4.5 All 4 moves and both predictions (even if incorrect) are highlighted on the map and the new ply is published.

5. If not stated otherwise, normal chess rules apply.

6. En passant can be only performed as a conditional move to the current opponent's primary pawn double move.

Elaboration:

  1. Capturing a rook in a long castling does not affect the double-move of the king. (0-0-0 Rb1 will result in both rooks being annihalated and a king standing on c1.)

    Market Management.

  1. Buy Yes shares to become an eligible white team player.

  2. Kongo plays black and has to publish his move order first, cyphered.

  3. When the time dedicated for a ply ends, I will look through commited moves and take the move from the highest shareholder from white team. If highest did not commit a move, then the second highest is picked and so on.

  4. I will actively prevent sabotage and metagaming, even if I would need to contradict already established rules of the market and rewrite them.

  5. Each ply (boardstate picture and most recent orders) will be published in the comments.

Recent update:

  1. Added Elaboration 1 about castling.

  2. Replaced "target square" with "Path" in rule 2. That change prevents discovered instant attacks.

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@traders

White move 8:

Qh3xBh6 and if Bg7 then Bc6

Black move 8:

move8:Qc7,if(Qxh6)then(Bg7)

Black move 9:

bc63ccf73d6f4bf1e7f8b244a13c5d0afbfc4f0fc9c7096ab93cf6e77a220b61

@traders tomorrow move 8 will be published. Then the time for move will be up to 21June. And after that continues normally with a weekly schedule.

@KongoLandwalker Hope exams went well. ❤

Result of move 7:

White:

Qh3 and if Bh6xe3 then f4

Black:

move7:Nd3,if(Qxg6)then(g5).

Black's move 8 will be added today:

...

@KongoLandwalker @traders

Black's move 8:

3566c46862d8fcb99f980d61cbb6eaf131ef0652cd74f8920488dac39caac4ca

@KongoLandwalker Better post something before deadline:

Qh3xBh6 and if Bg7 then Bc6

@Mich haven't had recent response

@KongoLandwalker Mich did like move above. Just posting in case you missed it, no rush

@ChristopherRandles

@traders the game is frozen for 7-10 days.

@KongoLandwalker is it possible to see the execution of move 8 ? Or is it part of the freeze ?

@Mich not possible, it is part of a freeze, i am busy with exams

@KongoLandwalker Oh okay

If you have no particular reason not to, I think it would be fair that you reveal the unhashed string of characters guving your move so that everyone has got the same amount of information during the freeze.

Good luck with your exams !

@Mich i do not have the hashed string with me, and i do not remember it. I might post the ply picture this weekend.

Thanks

@Mich btw, you can bet on my exam success:

Good luck hope they all go well.

Corrected picture and black's updated hash

65e43664f35418214105354fd8abbfe2f5f1aed7c2192c4710040055825c96e3

@Mich @ChristopherRandles

@KongoLandwalker Qh3 and if Bh6xe3 then f4

@KongoLandwalker This move was liked by Mich in case you missed it. No rush.

Is this the board?

Also we do not know whether you want or need to change your move as a result of this changed board. Whether you want to change or not I would suggest you post a new hash, and if there is no change add an extra space to move so that we do not know whether you have changed your move or not.

@KongoLandwalker See above.
I think we do need to know you have committed to move before we post our move.

We do also need a little time after you confirm board and post new hash. So if we need to claim a little extra time please take this message as claiming some extra time.

@ChristopherRandles that is the board. New hash in 30 minutes

[Upd. This picture is incorrect, will be replaced later]

White:

Bc6xRa8 ; if f5xQg4 then Qg4-g5

Black:

move6:Bh6,if(Bxd4)then(dxc6)

Blue circle - annihilation according to the rule 4.3.

Black's move 7:

99053dc58fd6d4546e295cf85f1053505a91bda6100abf830d724802eeca4a85

@traders White can commit a move before 24:00 friday London time.

@KongoLandwalker Was the black move Ba6 rather than Bh6 that is written?

@ChristopherRandles thanks for pointing. What is written into the hash has the priority over what i intended, i will correct the picture later.

@KongoLandwalker a question on the rules:

4.2 If pieces attempted to capture each other, both are annihilated and their moves are substracted from mtbd. At this point mtbd might have a length of [0, 4].
4.3 For each move from mtbd draw its path on the board. If different color pieces' paths intersect, both are annihilated and substracted from mtbd. If there are several intersections, (for example, your conditional move crosses both primary and conditional move of your opponent, or all 4 pieces cross a single square) then all the associated pieces are annihilated.

Had you played Ba6,
Firstly, does 4.2 apply? I would assume moving to different squares so neither is attempting to capture the other.
If 4.3 applies and not 4.2, then the Rook on a8 doesn't move but a8 could be considered to be 'one of several intersections' and R could be considered one of the associated pieces that are annihilated. I guess by " If different color pieces' paths intersect," you meant 'If the moving pieces paths of different color pieces' paths intersect,'. So the moves get subtracted from mtbd set and the R is not annihilated.

@ChristopherRandles 4.3 should apply. rook was never added to mtbd, so his "path"(non existent) could not overlap with enemies'.

Being in the mtbd list is already the specification, limiting to "the moving pieces".

@KongoLandwalker is the deadline still Friday 24:00 London time, or do you plan to post a new comment and give a new deadline ?

@Mich depends on whether you request additional week as the compensation. I forgot about the picture.