2024 Recap

Plus

Ṁ3187

Dec 31

88%

Sweden joins NATO

88%

Artificial Intelligence Act in EU

75%

UN GA granting Palestine the right to be seated

61%

Russia and North Korea have signed a mutual war assistance pact

61%

Lai Ching-te becoming president of Taiwan

59%

Ukraine recieves F-16

54%

Ismail Abd al-Salam Haniyeh assasination

52%

UAE becoming BRICS member

50%

EU boycott Hungary’s foreign affairs summit

50%

CrowdStrike update breaks Windows

44%

Commercial Nova-C lander on the Moon

28%

ChatGPT 4o

18%

Putin re-election

16%

2nd August prisoners exchange

11%

Navalny's death

Assasination attempt on Trump

At the end of the year 12 options with the highest % will resolve YES.

Bet up those that had or will have the most impact, bet down less significant ones.

Add option with the event you think was one of the twelve most important for the world this year.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#World

#2024

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5 Comments

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sold Ṁ49 YES

This market is whale bait. Should be resolved via poll or by # of yes positions instead of percentage at close. Caveat emptor.

bought Ṁ50 YES

This event alone could spark a whole region-war.

I do not see how assasination attempt will become significant and why people bet it up to second place. Trump was winning anyway, and it does not look like the attempt will result in any new policy or actions, which would not happen otherwise.

What if there are only 12 or fewer options by market end?

I will prevent that by adding events as the year progresses, and make sure there are at least 24 events.

If for any reason I am not present on Manifold and there are less than 24 options at the closure, then here is a message to mods:

Resolve half (rounded down) of the options to Yes.

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