MANIFOLD
2024 Recap
20
Ṁ1.7kṀ3.2k
resolved Sep 18
Resolved
YES
ChatGPT 4o
Resolved
YES
UAE becoming BRICS member
Resolved
YES
Lai Ching-te becoming president of Taiwan
Resolved
YES
Commercial Nova-C lander on the Moon
Resolved
YES
Sweden joins NATO
Resolved
YES
Artificial Intelligence Act in EU
Resolved
YES
UN GA granting Palestine the right to be seated
Resolved
YES
Russia and North Korea have signed a mutual war assistance pact
Resolved
YES
EU boycott Hungary’s foreign affairs summit
Resolved
YES
Ismail Abd al-Salam Haniyeh assasination
Resolved
YES
Ukraine recieves F-16
Resolved
YES
CrowdStrike update breaks Windows
Resolved
NO
Navalny's death
Resolved
NO
Putin re-election
Resolved
NO
Assasination attempt on Trump
Resolved
NO
2nd August prisoners exchange

At the end of the year 12 options with the highest % will resolve YES.

Bet up those that had or will have the most impact, bet down less significant ones.

Add option with the event you think was one of the twelve most important for the world this year.

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@mods resolve please

sold Ṁ49 YES

This market is whale bait. Should be resolved via poll or by # of yes positions instead of percentage at close. Caveat emptor.

bought Ṁ50 YES

This event alone could spark a whole region-war.

I do not see how assasination attempt will become significant and why people bet it up to second place. Trump was winning anyway, and it does not look like the attempt will result in any new policy or actions, which would not happen otherwise.

What if there are only 12 or fewer options by market end?

I will prevent that by adding events as the year progresses, and make sure there are at least 24 events.

If for any reason I am not present on Manifold and there are less than 24 options at the closure, then here is a message to mods:

Resolve half (rounded down) of the options to Yes.

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