going to try a version of this again. hopefully it gets more participants this time bc i really think it could get interesting!

https://manifold.markets/KnowNothing/at-market-close-will-most-traders-b

At market close, will most traders be making money?

52% chance. Resolves YES if, at market close, the amount of participants with a profit is greater than the amount with a loss. Otherwise, resolves NO. For example, if the market looked like the attached image at close, this would resolve as YES. [image]Manifold can be a bit slow at updating profits/losses, so I will wait about an hour after this market closes before resolving it.

Resolves NO

Market is closed and this is what the profit tab looks like, indicating that this resolves YES.

I am going to give the system a few minutes before resolving to see if it just hasn't updated yet because I am a bit confused about how @Gen and @Gabe are being listed in the red considering that both of them only made one trade which was a YES purchase at under 47%. Since the market closed out 47% I would think that this would necessarily mean that they are currently in the green at close, but maybe I am misunderstanding something about manifold.

I promise I'm not (consciously) being a sore loser. I genuinely don't get what happened here, and don't want to hastily resolve this the wrong way.

yeah... it's already changed since i first commented, so definitely gonna give the system time to sort everything out before resolving

closes tonight!