Why was this resolved at 85%? On what basis does that make any sense?

@JerroldVincent I tired na but uh didn’t work something about -values so I chose 85 bc it wasn’t yes or no but so I just chose most for those who chose no I just saw this and was like oops I forgot about this

@KnightMer I still don’t know how this quite works eh

@KnightMer \/(*_*)\/

@KnightMer Guess I should’ve done like 97 percent

@KnightMer Why? Why on earth? The higher the percentage the closer it is to being "yes". Most people said "no", most money was on "no", and there's no evidence whatsoever for "yes". I've been, you know, zoned out since the election, moping, but this fundamentally makes no sense.

@KnightMer maybe you should ask the mod team to re resolve for you. I'm sure they could make it NA if that's the resolution you want

If the information is going ftl, it's going back in time, so if this turns out to be true, maybe my future self can send me a message that I ought to bet the other way.

Duplicate of:

Are you following Siddhant Das's experiment project?

From what I understand, Tim Maudlin thinks that it could show that ftl information transfer is possible

I understand very little of all this but AFAIK it's conditional on a specific version of pilot wave theory, so I would say 16% is still quite high

@Ppau hmm no I'm following that experiment but various theories can say it can or can't, so me being not smart enough to have a PHD in cool things like quantum physics has decided to do this for the wisdom of the wise. Also I will have have to take a look at that thanks, sounds intresting.

@Ppau Can you point me to Maudlin saying that? That's... Bizarre. I'm willing to hear Maudlin out, he's far smarter than I am. But off hand I just don't see how Bohmian ToF entails FTL information transfer without some Real Big Fuckery^TM going on behind the scenes that pretty much no Bohmian I know thinks is correct.

@Najawin

To be clear I'm not positive that what he's talking about is related to Das's experiment

He mentions it at 50'46" in this Mindcape interview:

https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2023/06/26/241-tim-maudlin-on-locality-hidden-variables-and-quantum-foundations/

A friend of mine who's really into Bohmian mechanics and often talks with Jean Bricmont thinks that he may have gotten out a bit over his skis in this case, but it doesn't seem totally nonsensical either

@Ppau Oh, yeah, I listened to this. Vaguely remember it. I'm with your friend.

How do you plan to resolve this?

@jgyou +1, how are people betting when nothing has been specified

@CharlieLidbury is there a way to refund? because if there wasnt I was planning on trying to even it out as much as i could so people could get the most back. If there was a refund for everyone that'd be great. Im just using this as a way to see other opinions.

@KnightMer yeah you can resolve N/A

@KnightMer Manifold also supports polls, which are a good way to find out people's opinions without them having to bet mana.

@Fion ah darn I should have done that, I have had no past experience with Manifold in the past, so that was my mistake.

Quantum Entanglement babyyy

@Stralor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-communication_theorem

@Najawin hmm interesting!

I'm curious about this market, I don't understand if you're someone with a genuine question or if you already know the answer and are just testing the public

@Seykran I have my own theories but I wanted to see want the majority of people think about this topic, and i saw that prediction markets are decently accurate and would be a good place to pose this question.

@KnightMer Cool!