Full title
"Gun Control Debate w/ Former Military And Law Enforcement Officer | CHANGE MY MIND"
Experimenting with the format of this market, let me know what you think of the change in the comments please!
Resolution for this market will be based off of the view count reflected at 9am est 11/20/22
Close date updated to 2022-11-20 8:30 am
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ197 | |
| 2 | Ṁ150 | |
| 3 | Ṁ70 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
Instead of making it "within 48 hours" I would suggest making it a specific time. That time could be 48 hours from the time the video is posted but since youtube doesn't give you the exact time of the video being posted it without using a 3rd party app it will lead to less of a headache when it comes time to resolve the market since the criteria is more clearly stated for people betting on the market.
Another tip is to make any market based on a prediction of if something will happen or not closed to trading before the time it should be resolved. It will prevent people making bets at the last second when they already know the answer. It kind of defeats the point of making a prediction if you can make your prediction 1 second before the market is determined and resolved.
Depending on how you set up the market that can also lead to someone throwing a bunch of mana into a market at the last second and forcing a large profit. Look at the last 10 trades on this market:https://manifold.markets/BettersonMcgee/pepe-vs-yee-1-day-only-0429c8532e41
It was 90% in favor of yes and in the last 60 seconds the market was open 2 users dumped 11900 mana on "no" bets and swung the market to 0.4% in favor of no and profited a lot from it but it screwed everyone who was betting normally on this market.
@OrbiterVoltron I have it set to close at 11/20 9am est, should I have it set to close, say, maybe, 4 hours before at 5am? (9am is my estimation of when it was posted today)
@Kilmor Yeah i think for this type of market/bet i think a couple of hours is fine. Even 30 minutes to 1 hour would probably work in this case if it the prediction number is close to the current number of views.
I think the key for finding a good time to close trading is finding the balance between fun/exciting and fair for everyone making bets. In the case of this market I think you should expect to see more active trading volume in the hours leading up to the closing time since people will have more information to go on but if you allow people to trade until the last possible second you are just giving some people free mana since they know what the total views are and they can bet with 100% certainty of profit.