Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by July 14, 2025, credible law enforcement agencies or reputable news organizations publicly confirm that the individual responsible for the June 14, 2025, assassination of Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband, as well as the shooting of State Senator John Hoffman and his wife, has verifiable ties to right-wing political groups or ideologies. Acceptable sources for confirmation include:

• Official statements from law enforcement agencies such as the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension or the FBI.

• Reports from established news outlets like Reuters, Associated Press, or The New York Times.

If no such confirmation is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

On June 14, 2025, a gunman disguised as a police officer fatally shot Democratic State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband at their Brooklyn Park home. The same individual also critically wounded State Senator John Hoffman and his wife in Champlin. The suspect fled the scene after a shootout with police, leaving behind a vehicle containing a manifesto that listed other potential targets among lawmakers and officials. Authorities have described the attack as a "politically motivated assassination" and are conducting an extensive manhunt. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• The manifesto found in the suspect's vehicle may provide insights into the individual's political affiliations or motivations. However, the content has not been publicly disclosed as of now.

• The suspect's use of a police disguise and a vehicle resembling a squad car suggests a level of premeditation and access to specific resources, which may indicate connections to organized groups.

• Previous incidents in Minnesota have involved individuals with ties to right-wing extremist groups, such as the "constitutional sheriffs" movement, which believes that sheriffs have the authority to refuse enforcement of laws they consider unconstitutional. (minnesotareformer.com)

Traders should monitor official statements and reputable news reports for updates on the suspect's affiliations to inform their positions in this market.