Will Figma IPO before the end of 2024?
75
961
Ṁ1.9k
2025
13%
chance

Resolves YES on the date of an IPO, if it happens on or before December 31, 2024. Unusual market structures like direct listings also count as long as the public can buy Figma stock.

May resolve NO early if e.g an IPO date is set for early 2025.

Resolves NO if they get acquired or if a company announces a deal to acquire Figma.

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bought Ṁ230 of NO

15-month timeframe on Figma failing to close an acquisition deal? Seems implausible that a successful IPO lands in ~12 months.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 25%
bought Ṁ100 of NO

I don’t think they will be able to pull it off till then since this normally takes a lot of time to do the right way and Figma has little/no pressure to rush the process since they have enough cash and the current economic situation is not great.

Also note that they got 1 Billion from Adobe because the deal broke which means they really have no liquidity problems.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 25% to 24%
predicts NO

Arguments for NO

  • More options for companies staying private (very late stage funds, continuation funds, etc)

  • On average several months between S-1 filing and IPO. Figma has not filed to go public

  • Most tech startups "planning" for near-term IPO actually do not file within one year. Media not yet reporting that Figma even wants IPO in 2024

bought Ṁ179 of NO

@PlainBG Yeah my guess is given the Adobe acquisition they're even less well set up for an IPO than the average similar-sized tech co who has vague plans for one

bought Ṁ200 of NO
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