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MANIFOLD
Will Mar-A-Lago need to be evacuated during the 2023 hurricane season?
12
Ṁ230Ṁ6.8k
resolved Nov 1
Resolved
NO

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I doubt it’ll have to be evacuated but FYI the season ends at the end of November.

predictedNO

@NicoDelon Perhaps but I just followed the closing date I gave it.

@KevinLobLaw I understand, but 1. close date can be extended; 2. resolution and close are distinct; 3. while very unlikely, an evacuation could still happen within the season.

predictedNO

@NicoDelon My philosophy is that if I didn’t say the resolution date may be extended then people place their bets assuming I have defined the hurricane season to end on the resolution date. It would be unfair if I changed the resolution date once someone has bet with defined terms.

I was expecting a more active season given the ocean temperatures. In this case, I think regardless of the date the bets are safe.

I should have been more clear in my description. That point is taken.

@KevinLobLaw You never stated your philosophy or a resolution date. You should do so in the description if your interpretation differs from the common meaning of a term. Again, the resolution date and the close date are different things, so there's no unfairness. No one assumed you would only count events through end of October.

predictedNO

@NicoDelon If the Mar-A-Lago is evacuated by November, it would be a great avenue for Manifold.arbitration to take hold rather than dump money into manifold.dating which no one wants and which is dumb.

need to be = mandatory evacuation?

or does actually evacuated despite not being mandatory count as yes for resolution?

or maybe not evacuated but should have been evacuated due to injuries/deaths might count?