At the Sean Hannity moderated, Newsom-DeSantis debate on November 30th, will DeSantis say "woke" more than 4.5 times?
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resolved Dec 1
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NO

On November 30th, Gavin Newsom and Ron/Rob DeSantis will debate on FOX. Will the Governor of Florida say "woke" more than 4.5 times? Will resolve YES at 5, NO at 4 or under.

He will most likely use it in the context of a "woke agenda" or "woke ideology" or "go woke, go broke" but any version of use of "woke" works, such as "I woke up next to my wife Casey who thinks less of me now that my poll numbers are in the toilet, and I had to stoop to doing this debate to get attention."

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

Waiting for that last minute "Woke, woke, woke, woke, woke" mic drop from Ronny Wokes-a-lot.

ngl, didn’t expect to get prayed at

predicted YES

This is very boring.

What even is this debate, nobody is asking for it? If a man is drinking through the straw anywhere here at this event it is too woke for me! 😂

predicted YES

@Mirek A rare point of agreement for the left and the right: no need for straws!

bought Ṁ100 of NO

He hasn't said it at all in any of the GOP debates. What makes people think he would say it 5 times in a debate with Newsom?

2 traders bought Ṁ290 NO
predicted YES

@PlasmaBallin Desperate men. Do desperate things. He has to show how tough he is to MAGA. When in the R debates, the other candidates aren’t as woke as Gavin so he doesn’t need to say it.

predicted NO

@KevinBlaw How will calling Gavin Newsom woke make DeSantis seem tough? I think it would just make him seem pathetic. The term "woke" would be much more effective in a Republican debate than a Republican vs. Democrat debate because only Repiublicans care about something being "woke". The fact that he doesn't even use it there makes me think he's even less likely to use it in a debate with Newsom.

bought Ṁ50 YES from 46% to 50%
predicted YES

@PlasmaBallin So, let me get this right: Your position is that DeSantis does the thing that would help him? Hmm. It's not a strategy he's followed so far...

predicted YES

@PlasmaBallin Another triumph for statistics

bought Ṁ50 of NO

The transcript of the first Republican debate mentioned "woke" exactly one time (ascribed to Nikki Haley), and the second Republican debate mentioned "woke" exactly zero times. So I'm very doubtful that DeSantis, only one of several candidates, will be able to work "woke" into his speech an astounding five times.

bought Ṁ25 YES from 20% to 47%
bought Ṁ55 NO from 41% to 33%
bought Ṁ25 of YES

@duck_master Do you think Roll Call will have the transcript for this debate? It would be awfully helpful to make sure I don't miss it.

For what it's worth, I agree that "woke" has not been successful for DeSantis on the campaign trail, and he has abandoned focusing on it. Why I think it is possible is because Hannity is trying to make this a Red State vs Blue State debate, and if Rob is going to talk about Florida, he can't not say WOKE as that is is whole identity.

predicted NO

@KevinBlaw Your comments are making me nervous about my position here.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@KevinBlaw As a Florida native that has watched anti-woke Ron drop all the anti-woke messaging over the last year I have an opinion on why. That messaging only really resonated with a demographic that rather vote for Trump, even in the most anti-woke pockets of North Florida. He's their second choice and he's already said "woke" enough times in speeches and tv appearances for Americans to heavily associate him with the word.

predicted YES

@becauseyoudo The other way to look at is that even though he doesn't want to say it, Newsom will bait him to say it, and put him in a position where he can't NOT say it. I dunno. It will be interesting.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@KevinBlaw This might be the only way to get some "wokes" out of Ron. If challenged, Ron would need to defend his decision to politicize and take executive control over the curriculums in Florida schools and universities.

predicted NO

@becauseyoudo They might have to hire back Bill O'Reilly for the day to cut Gavin's mic.