Will Russia declare a general mobilization before 2024?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

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@Nostradamnedus What do you mean by "before 2024"? I am a little bit confused with the market close date.

@dhempfs Fixed.

What's the difference between a general and a not general mobilization?

predictedNO

@Berg partial mobilization was already announced 21 September 2022

predictedYES

@AndreyTatarinov is there any difference between 'a partial' and 'a general' mobilization except how the state media calls it?

predictedNO

@Berg yes, there is. Currently only a subgroup of men are targeted: those who are in reserve (considered to have proper training and experience). Although de facto anyone at random could be detained by police and conscripted. It produced massive panic and a wave of emigration.

If I understand correctly on general mobilization literally every men of proper age would be eligible.

predictedYES

@AndreyTatarinov to me it sounds like, for the purpose of the market, we can qualify the current Russian mobilization as a general mobilization, since every male can be mobilized if the state so desires. A partial mobilization name is in fact, a state-run government media ruse to play down the scale of it and avoid panic.

predictedNO

@Berg it's the question of definitions, I was betting NO based on the letter, and I believe that formally general mobilization will never be declared.

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