Either primary or general election. I will resolve as N/A if he doesn't participate in a debate or there is strong controversy whether he forgot something or not.
1,000
3.00I say this with no bias, Biden is my favorite President in my lifetime. I voted for him, and if he runs again I intend to vote for him again.
But he forgets stuff while speaking extemporaneously, and he's only getting older. Three years ago he already forgot what he was saying in debates. Why should we expect him to become more cogent in another year?
@ForrestTaylor There’s no way he forgets what he’s saying, if he actually makes it to debates it will be because he’s ready & the bidenbot2024 will be primed for debates (idk if you saw the SOTU)
Easy money, it's impossible for him to forget what he was saying. He says exactly what he means to say, even when it sounds like he isn't.
It reminds me of a Bob Dylan quote, when asked about the peculiarities of his voice, he said (paraphrased), "No, I sing every single note exactly how I want it to sound."
@ShakedKoplewitz Yeah my actual top bet here would be on N/A, Biden stammers and redirects his sentence and everyone argues about it.
@ForrestTaylor !?
I'm invested in this as NO but I'd argue it's only NO if he takes part and doesn't forget what he's saying. If no debate happens then it's clearly a N/A.
@SamuelRichardson I strongly disagree. The question as you're asking it is "Conditional on Joe Biden taking part in an election debate, will he forget what he was saying during a debate before 2025?" But that's not what was asked. "
The question is "Will Joe Biden forget what he was saying during an election debate before 2025?" There are no conditionals or "if" statements in that question.
@SamuelRichardson I’m with @ForrestTaylor here. If Biden doesn’t run then it’s false that he will forget what he’s saying during a debate, and this should resolve as NO.
@NicoDelon @ForrestTaylor Out of interest, what criteria would have to be met to make this market resolve as an N/A for you?
If the criteria to be met is that "Conditional on Joe Biden taking part in an election debate" then I can't actually see any criteria where this would resolve N/A.
Will Joe Biden forget what he was saying during an election debate before 2025?
I suppose thinking about it, there's two (actually three) predicates that need to be satisfied here:
He needs to participate in an election debate.
It needs to be before 2025
He needs to forget what he was saying.
If he's unavailable to participate in the debate then the first clause is false so I suppose it resolves NO. I guess theirs no scenario where it can be N/A even if he dropped dead before it.
@SamuelRichardson Right now, the only reason I could think of that this market should resolve as N/A is if it is genuinely unclear whether or not Pres. Biden forgets what he was saying during an election debate before 2025. For instance, imagine that the only example anyone can cite by market close is Pres. Biden trailing off, then saying "Never mind, let's move on." during an answer about one of his family members. Some people cite it as an instance of him forgetting what he was saying, others cite it as an example of him being uncomfortable with the question and choosing to move on. If that was the only example, I would consider resolving the question N/A.
"If the criteria to be met is that "Conditional on Joe Biden taking part in an election debate" then I can't actually see any criteria where this would resolve N/A." The criteria would be the condition that he takes part in an election debate. If he did not take part in an election debate, then THAT question should resolve as N/A if the conditional doesn't happen.
@Duncan I will resolve as N/A if he doesn't participate in a debate or there is strong controversy whether he forgot something or not.
@Nostradamnedus You definitely need to add the condition to the description or the title, I have been trading under the assumption that the question is unconditional