Will Joe Biden forget what he was saying during an election debate before 2025?
240
314
2k
2025
46%
chance

Either primary or general election. I will resolve as N/A if he doesn't participate in a debate or there is strong controversy whether he forgot something or not.

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sold Ṁ2,846 YES

I am selling my investment before the value of Mana is decreased to a tenth of its current value on May 15 2024.

Seems like the criteria should clarify whether switching topics without saying "i forgot what i was saying" is yes or not

predicts YES

This market is priced insanely low.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

I say this with no bias, Biden is my favorite President in my lifetime. I voted for him, and if he runs again I intend to vote for him again.

But he forgets stuff while speaking extemporaneously, and he's only getting older. Three years ago he already forgot what he was saying in debates. Why should we expect him to become more cogent in another year?

predicts YES

@ForrestTaylor screw it, I'll plunk down another three dollars

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@ForrestTaylor if I sold all my shares right now the market would move down to 31%. Insane.

predicts NO

@ForrestTaylor There’s no way he forgets what he’s saying, if he actually makes it to debates it will be because he’s ready & the bidenbot2024 will be primed for debates (idk if you saw the SOTU)

Easy money, it's impossible for him to forget what he was saying. He says exactly what he means to say, even when it sounds like he isn't.

It reminds me of a Bob Dylan quote, when asked about the peculiarities of his voice, he said (paraphrased), "No, I sing every single note exactly how I want it to sound."

bought Ṁ220 of NO

There is no way the Robiden2024 model does anything more than a stutter on the political stage. Recent firmware updates added prior to the state of the union have Biden set to take over the world!

bought Ṁ70 of YES

Nostradamndeus has just made clear that this market will resolve N/A if Biden doesn't participate in a debate. Imo this market should now be 10-15% higher

bought Ṁ100 of YES

NO holders, now would be a seriously good time to dump your NO. This market won't resolve NO now until well after 2023- you now will no longer see a profit if Biden doesn't run

This seems vague, are we counting any sort of confusion or something that's clearly a form of senility? Do you have examples in the past of Biden saying things you'd consider count for this?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@ShakedKoplewitz Yeah my actual top bet here would be on N/A, Biden stammers and redirects his sentence and everyone argues about it.

Has he announced that he’ll run for President again?

@NathanNguyen I would guess it resolves as N/A if he doesn't?

predicts YES

@blake no, it should resolve NO if he doesn't take part in a debate

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@ForrestTaylor !?

I'm invested in this as NO but I'd argue it's only NO if he takes part and doesn't forget what he's saying. If no debate happens then it's clearly a N/A.

predicts YES

@SamuelRichardson I strongly disagree. The question as you're asking it is "Conditional on Joe Biden taking part in an election debate, will he forget what he was saying during a debate before 2025?" But that's not what was asked. "
The question is "Will Joe Biden forget what he was saying during an election debate before 2025?" There are no conditionals or "if" statements in that question.

predicts NO

@SamuelRichardson I’m with @ForrestTaylor here. If Biden doesn’t run then it’s false that he will forget what he’s saying during a debate, and this should resolve as NO.

predicts NO

@NicoDelon @ForrestTaylor Out of interest, what criteria would have to be met to make this market resolve as an N/A for you?

If the criteria to be met is that "Conditional on Joe Biden taking part in an election debate" then I can't actually see any criteria where this would resolve N/A.

predicts NO

@ForrestTaylor

Will Joe Biden forget what he was saying during an election debate before 2025?

I suppose thinking about it, there's two (actually three) predicates that need to be satisfied here:

  1. He needs to participate in an election debate.

  2. It needs to be before 2025

  3. He needs to forget what he was saying.

If he's unavailable to participate in the debate then the first clause is false so I suppose it resolves NO. I guess theirs no scenario where it can be N/A even if he dropped dead before it.

predicts NO

@SamuelRichardson Right now, the only reason I could think of that this market should resolve as N/A is if it is genuinely unclear whether or not Pres. Biden forgets what he was saying during an election debate before 2025. For instance, imagine that the only example anyone can cite by market close is Pres. Biden trailing off, then saying "Never mind, let's move on." during an answer about one of his family members. Some people cite it as an instance of him forgetting what he was saying, others cite it as an example of him being uncomfortable with the question and choosing to move on. If that was the only example, I would consider resolving the question N/A.

"If the criteria to be met is that "Conditional on Joe Biden taking part in an election debate" then I can't actually see any criteria where this would resolve N/A." The criteria would be the condition that he takes part in an election debate. If he did not take part in an election debate, then THAT question should resolve as N/A if the conditional doesn't happen.

predicts NO

@SamuelRichardson N/A resolution is the exception, not the rule

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@blake I would also guess that, so it'd be nice if @Nostradamnedus would clarify.

@Duncan I will resolve as N/A if he doesn't participate in a debate or there is strong controversy whether he forgot something or not.

predicts YES

@Nostradamnedus You definitely need to add the condition to the description or the title, I have been trading under the assumption that the question is unconditional