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Resolves Yes if during 2022, Covid spreads in China to an extent where lockdowns and other emergency measures are no longer able to effectively control the spread for any long period of time.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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Dr. John Campbell reports that the R0 is/was 18 to 20. Mainstream sources (MSN) are reporting that half of Beijing has already been infected.
Multiple localiites (Chongqing, Zhejiang) now encouraging people to go to work with "mild symptoms," and "appropriate precautions," according to CNN and SCMP.
@Nostradamnedus Arguably the question should have resolved yes before it even started... With all due respect, it is currently more about reading your mind than knowing what is actually going on in China.
@sbares If there are outbreaks in multiple cities that continue in high numbers despite lockdowns then it is a Yes.
Related market to China's lockdowns: https://manifold.markets/MP/during-the-year-2027-will-china-imp
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