Will Covid spread become uncontrolled in China during 2022?
54
380Ṁ6730
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES
Resolves Yes if during 2022, Covid spreads in China to an extent where lockdowns and other emergency measures are no longer able to effectively control the spread for any long period of time. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ604
2Ṁ51
3Ṁ49
4Ṁ47
5Ṁ38
Sort by:
predictedYES

Dr. John Campbell reports that the R0 is/was 18 to 20. Mainstream sources (MSN) are reporting that half of Beijing has already been infected.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AH3AFYVn3T8

I feel this is very ambiguous. Define "able" and "effectively"? I.e. does the Shanghai speard some months ago qualify as "able to effectively control"?

@MetroWind I'll know it when I see it and it does.

@Nostradamnedus Arguably the question should have resolved yes before it even started... With all due respect, it is currently more about reading your mind than knowing what is actually going on in China.

predictedYES

@sbares Agreed.

@sbares If there are outbreaks in multiple cities that continue in high numbers despite lockdowns then it is a Yes.

Related market to China's lockdowns: https://manifold.markets/MP/during-the-year-2027-will-china-imp
This is clearly going to happen. Not necessarily this month. Most likely sometime in June or July.
Seems more likely than not, shall we say.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy