Will Covid spread become uncontrolled in China during 2022?
54
218
380
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES
Resolves Yes if during 2022, Covid spreads in China to an extent where lockdowns and other emergency measures are no longer able to effectively control the spread for any long period of time. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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predicted YES

Dr. John Campbell reports that the R0 is/was 18 to 20. Mainstream sources (MSN) are reporting that half of Beijing has already been infected.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AH3AFYVn3T8

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I feel this is very ambiguous. Define "able" and "effectively"? I.e. does the Shanghai speard some months ago qualify as "able to effectively control"?

@MetroWind I'll know it when I see it and it does.

@Nostradamnedus Arguably the question should have resolved yes before it even started... With all due respect, it is currently more about reading your mind than knowing what is actually going on in China.

predicted YES

@sbares Agreed.

@sbares If there are outbreaks in multiple cities that continue in high numbers despite lockdowns then it is a Yes.

Related market to China's lockdowns: https://manifold.markets/MP/during-the-year-2027-will-china-imp
bought Ṁ57 of YES
This is clearly going to happen. Not necessarily this month. Most likely sometime in June or July.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Seems more likely than not, shall we say.