Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before June 30, 2027, Meta officially announces the permanent discontinuation of the "Meta Quest" (or "Quest") hardware product line, confirming they will no longer manufacture, sell, or develop new VR/MR headsets under the "Quest" or "Meta Quest" brand.

This market will resolve to NO if, as of June 30, 2027, any of the following conditions are met:

• Meta continues to actively manufacture, sell, or officially support any model of the Meta Quest headset (such as the Quest 3, Quest 3S, or any subsequent Quest model).

• Meta releases a new VR/MR headset under the "Quest" branding on or before June 30, 2027.

• Meta has not made an official announcement discontinuing the entire hardware brand.

Edge Cases:

• Rebranding: A renaming of the headset line (e.g., changing the hardware name from "Meta Quest" to "Meta Horizon" while continuing to develop and sell the same line of standalone headsets) will not count as "dying out" and will resolve the market to NO.

• Software-only pivot: If Meta completely stops producing VR/MR hardware and transitions solely to licensing its software (Horizon OS) to third-party hardware manufacturers, this market will resolve to YES.

The primary source of truth for this market will be official press releases from Meta (https://about.meta.com/news/) or announcements made during major Meta events (such as Meta Connect).

Background

Meta's hardware roadmap for its Reality Labs division stretches well into 2027. Reports and internal leaks indicate that Meta is developing multiple next-generation headsets. This includes an ultralight mixed-reality device with a tethered compute puck (codenamed "Phoenix") targeting a launch in the first half of 2027, as well as a more traditional Meta Quest 4 (codenamed "Griffin") slated for late 2027 or later. While Meta has reorganized portions of its Reality Labs division, company executives (including CTO Andrew Bosworth and CFO Susan Li) continue to publicly reaffirm Meta's long-term commitment to VR/MR hardware.