MANIFOLD
🏳️‍⚧️ What will happen to trans people in Kansas as a result of the newly passed bounty hunter bill? (Add your answers)
9
Ṁ3.7kṀ933
Dec 31
83%
At least one person who gets targeted by this rule will turn out to be cisgender / not trans (will N/A if nobody gets targeted)
61%
At least one bathroom incident in Kansas will be reported on social media (eg Bluesky) or news source
60%
Public sanctimony. Private indulgence. One or more of the architects are found to be hypocrites and engaging in projection, and are doxed revelling in flagrante delicto in the very non-normative intimacies they seek to criminalise.
56%
The bill will be vetoed by Gov. Laura Kelley or her office
56%
The bill will be (at least temporarily) halted by courts in 2026. (Resolves N/A if bill killed before taking effect.)
53%
There are any social media or news reports of bathroom guards, inspections, or enforcement systems in Kansas in connection with gender
53%
The veto will be overridden by a 2/3 majority. (Resolves N/A if no veto)
50%
At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and will lead to an attempted prosecution
49%
At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and lead to an attempted prosecution, that will lead to a bounty payout or settlement
45%
At least one person will have their government ID confiscated or revoked, as reported on social media or news
45%
We can find reporting that tourism in Kansas in 2026 will drop by at least 5%, and this bill is named as a potential contributor in that reporting

On Jan 28, SB244 / HB 2426 passed the Kansas house and senate and now heads to the governor’s desk. Among other things, it :

  • gives a private right of action for people to sue other people in public or private bathrooms who (they believe) do not match the bathroom’s gender;

  • requires gender non-conforming people to surrender their government identity documents in the case of a perceived mismatch

(above is my interpretation)

Reporting:

The raw bill text:

One relevant part:

👉 Resolution will prefer reporting from trans-aligned news sources, like Erin in the Morning, Them, or Alejandra Caraballo, in addition to mainstream or local news. Resolution that mentions social media may draw anecdotes from Bluesky, X, threads, etc.

  • Bring everything to the comments for consideration, even extremist sources from either side.

  • I may call bullshit on obviously fake anecdotes.

  • This is a “will XYZ happen” market, not a “whose fault is it” market, which should hopefully aid objectivity.,

👉 If the bill does not make it into law, the later questions referring to its effects will resolve NO, unless otherwise stated.

👉 I am trans. I don’t live in Kansas. I won’t bet on this market.

There is intentional ambiguity around what counts as a “bathroom incident.” Let’s debate in the comments on a case by case basis. To me, a bathroom incident:

  • broadly involves at least two people

  • at least one of whom is offended by another person’s appearance/behavior/gender

  • involves speculation about whether somebody is trans

  • either occurs in Kansas, or wouldn’t otherwise be notable “but for” this law

  • broadly results in claimed harm

Most bathroom interactions are mundane and do not rise to the level of incidents. For example, finding a widely circulated social media post like “saw an ugly person in my gym bathroom this morning” doesn’t meet this bar unless it’s connected to being trans or connected to this law. A post about "i saw someone in my bathroom, is she secretly a man??" COULD count, if it's notable enough to rise to a level beyond interpersonal squabble (eg. it's widely reposted or reported). A news headline saying "person in bathroom escorted out of premises under suspicion for being the wrong gender" would easily count as the prototypical definition I had in mind.

For the "inspection/enforcement" question: bathrooms are not generally guarded or actively inspected in Kansas. Seeing posts like "these guys say they're protecting women by guarding the bathroom" or "this computerized system makes sure only women can use the womens' bathroom" would count, especially if widely reposted or reported.

  • Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "The veto will be overridden by a 2/3 majority" will resolve N/A if there is no veto.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

"Architects" as in people instrumental in creating or promoting the bill.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@KJW_01294 N/A if no veto?

@Qoiuoiuoiu Sure, good point. Will N/A that one if no veto.

bought Ṁ300 YES

This is a very dumb bill

I made this market because I’m seeing some coverage of this in trans news circles and Kansas local news, but there’s not much coverage outside of them.

Wanted to bring it to Manifold, see what you all think!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy