Resolution Criteria

The subquestions below will resolve as Yes if, before the listed date, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) announces that another wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. A mobilization qualifies so long as it mobilizes reservists or conscripts, not volunteers, and ISW characterizes it as officially recognized by the Russian government. For example, a "partial mobilization" would qualify while so-called "crypto-mobilization" or "self-mobilization" would not. ISW asserting that an unacknowledged mobilization is underway or has occurred would not qualify.

Fine Print

• If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.

• ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, if ISW ceases to publish the relevant updates this question resolves as Ambiguous. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications, and may resolve this question as Ambiguous in the event the published information is unclear.