Some have estimated that the likeliest time for The TCrB nova is about 25th June. There have been more than a couple early predictions that turned out to be false alarms, however, so caution is advised.
Resolves yes if in the timeframe, WebObs records at least two observers/teams recording instrumentally measured (not visual) observations brighter than that 6 with both comparison star and check star given (visible through "Expand all"). If between 25th May and 27th July that is not recorded twice, resolves NO. Whether the nova begins or recedes during the time period is immaterial. Link to WebObs given below:
https://apps.aavso.org/webobs/results/?star=000-BBW-825&num_results=200
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There were several dozen observations that stated it was dimmer than 4.9, all by visual, not instrumentation. And in no way suggested it was even near 4.9 but that comparing to a star that bright known to be stable, at least not as bright. Other than those there was one near miss in an observation of dimmer than 6.1 but again not implying that it is even near that bright, but at least not as bright as a star that is stable and that bright. Also, in that case it was explicitly through a set of binoculars, so not a precise measurement by any means. Resolving this NO.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen the light curve would look like a flat line with 6 visible on the y axis. I zoomed in to highlight the small fluctuations.
I am familiar with the brightness convention (small number = brighter) and have been tracking this star for a while. I've run 2 markets asking this same question.
Do you think there will be a "signal" in the light curve before it goes nova? For example, an exponential increase trend or a short time at mag 7-8 before increasing rapidly?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Ha! That dimming actually happened March/April 2023. There is supposedly another prediction by Jean Schneider coming up on June 25th 2026 nova might happen.
