Resolution criteria
(Noting UP top that though based on AI, this description has been vetted and edited by the market creator, that is me)(P.S. I will do a further edit for brevity, so if this is too much of a wall of text, make a note to come back to this later)
This market will resolve to the time frame during which the member states of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—currently Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—formally transition their regional bloc into a single sovereign federal state (federation) or "other".
To resolve this market, the transition must meet the following criteria:
Sovereignty Merger: The member nations must ratify a treaty or unified constitution that merges their individual national sovereignties into a single federal state under international law. I will however be lenient in how to interpret this. Essentially if the goal is to become a full member of the United Nations, it passes the walks like a duck test.
Federal Authority: The newly established federal government must hold supreme authority over key state functions such as foreign policy, defense, and international representation, moving beyond the coordination framework of a confederation. Yeah, I think the AI has this pretty much right.
Effective Date: AI suggests resolution should be determined by the official date the federation agreement or federal constitution legally takes effect. I however am not so sure on that. Let's go by that at latest or any significant irreversible symbolic act, that isn't contested by any authority in competition, or that is publicly recognized by three United Nations Full Member States, if contested.
Resolution Options:
2026: The Effective Date requirements met between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
2027 or 2028: The Effective Date requirements met between January 1, 2027, and December 31, 2028.
2029 to 2033: The Effective Date requirements met between January 1, 2029, and December 31, 2033.
2034 to 2039: The Effective Date requirements met between January 1, 2034, and December 31, 2039.
Later options may be added. You will recieve automatic shares by betting "Other"
The primary source of verification will be Wikipedia or successor, supported by official government decrees from the member states, official publications of the AES, or reporting from major global news outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera).
Background
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) originated as a mutual defense pact in September 2023 among the military regimes of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. In July 2024, the member nations upgraded the alliance into a confederation (the Confederation of Sahel States) and subsequently completed their formal withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
While the states have progressively integrated their militaries, coordinated foreign policies, and initiated joint economic frameworks, they currently remain separate, sovereign countries. However, the leadership of all three nations has previously expressed that the ultimate, long-term goal of the alliance is the creation of a full political and economic federation. This market tracks if and when they will successfully take the final step to merge into a single federal state.
The foundation for this description was generated by AI. I do not trust the AI however to do a good job, so I independently went through it to remove any howlers, and to fine tune it.
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