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MANIFOLD
Will the San Diego Rationalists adopt any amount of futarchy?
8
Ṁ170Ṁ121
resolved Oct 28
Resolved
NO

The San Diego Rationalist group is set to meet on Saturday Oct 28 to discuss, among other things, futarchy, which is a system of governance where prediction markets are used to determine policy. At the conclusion of the discussion, a vote will be held on whether integrating elements of futarchy could enhance the governance, organization, or functionality of the group. Conditional on the vote occurring, will the majority favor adopting aspects of futarchy in managing the San Diego Rationalist group?

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predictedNO

We discussed the pros and cons of futarchy for about an hour before voting. The final vote was 1 in favor, 6 against, and 1 abstaining.

Terms like “elements of futarchy” and “aspects of futarchy” are very vague. Since a clear goal is a precondition for futarchy (e.g. maximize GDP), I don’t think the group is well ready to do that.