Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 13 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This market's answers will resolve accordingly to how the Polymarket clone here does: What will Trump say during Nevada rally?
Thought this was a fun one, but a little too wild to want to put real money on it, so here it is on Manifold!
Rules from Polymarket:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says [ANSWER] during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will count as long as [ANSWER] is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to managing or conducting (something) fraudulently so as to produce a result or situation that is advantageous to a particular person.
If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 13, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
1,000
3.00@Lion I’m pretty new here — I think I accidentally changed it to be open when messing with the settings thinking it wasn’t possible to do so? Oops. In my mind, if I set it to no one at the start then that was permanent, but I guess I was wrong! Think it’s back to creator only now and I am going to abstain from adding the new Polymsrket ones given how soon this ends. Would it be proper to resolve this added one as a N/A later?
The differences between Manifold and Polymarket are significant and quite interesting. I've placed a few small bets leaning towards Polymarket. Let's see if it pays off.
Regardless, it's a cool market with less ambiguity than most Manifold Prop Bets, so it's worth checking out 👀