Resolution criteria

Chris Bryant was appointed Minister of State at the Department for Business and Trade on 6 September 2025. The market resolves YES if either Chris Bryant or his successor as UK Trade Minister visits Taiwan before 31 December 2027. A visit is defined as the minister traveling to Taiwan and being physically present on the island. The visit must be confirmed through official UK government announcements, news reports from established media outlets, or statements from the British Office in Taipei. The market resolves NO if no such visit occurs by the deadline.

Background

In June 2025, UK Minister for Trade Policy and Economic Security Douglas Alexander led the British delegation for annual trade talks in Taipei. Britain maintains a de facto embassy in Taipei, and junior British ministers hold talks with their Taiwanese counterparts but by convention senior ministers do not meet Taiwanese officials. Bilateral trade between the UK and Taiwan reached £9.3 billion in 2024, making Taiwan the UK's 33rd-largest trade partner.

Considerations

China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and strongly objects to any official interactions between the island and foreign governments. In 2025, the UK and Taiwan signed the three-pillar agreements of the UK-Taiwan Enhanced Partnership, focusing on investment, digital trade, and energy and net-zero cooperation. The convention that senior ministers avoid meeting Taiwanese officials may constrain visits by the Trade Minister, though junior ministers have conducted official visits for trade talks.