Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "YES" for all British officials listed who loses their current job before 2026 All other listed officials will resolve "NO". It is NOT necessary to demonstrate that this is related to the collapsed trial.

"Losing their job" is defined as:

1. Formal dismissal from their current government or civil service role.

2. Resignation from their current government or civil service role, where public statements from the individual or the government, or widely recognized, reputable news reports, explicitly and primarily attribute the resignation to the collapse of the China spy case.

3. A significant demotion or reassignment from their current government or civil service role.

Background

This market addresses the unexpected collapse in September 2025 of a high-profile espionage trial against two British men, Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry, who were accused of spying for China under the 1911 Official Secrets Act. The Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), Stephen Parkinson, publicly stated that the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) dropped the case because the government failed to provide a witness statement classifying China as a "threat to national security" at the time of the alleged offenses (late 2021 to early 2023). This legal requirement for prosecution under the 1911 Act was clarified by a court ruling in July 2024.

The alleged offenses took place under the previous Conservative government. However, the decision to drop the case was made under the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who took office in July 2024. Starmer has attributed the case's collapse to the policies of the former government.

• Jonathan Powell: Currently serves as the UK National Security Adviser, appointed in November 2024 by Prime Minister Starmer. Downing Street has denied reports that Powell pushed for the case's withdrawal.

• Matthew Collins: Holds the position of Deputy National Security Adviser. He provided the government witness statement to the CPS that was ultimately deemed insufficient. Prime Minister Starmer has publicly defended Collins' actions.

• Olly Robbins: Appointed Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) in January 2025.

• Stephen Parkinson: The current Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) and head of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) since November 2023. He made the public statement explaining the reasons for the case being dropped.

• Keir Starmer: The current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Labour Party.

• Yvette Cooper: Currently the Foreign Secretary, appointed in September 2025. She previously served as Home Secretary from July 2024 to September 2025. Her transition to Foreign Secretary was part of a wider cabinet reshuffle.