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Best assessment now seems to be 22 July (or maybe very close to that). I am not sure we are going to get any better info now. Several media reported he had formally resigned on 22 July. That they didn't give a date means I wouldn't rule out 18-21 July.

Seems a little odd to wait until 2 Nov if no better info is likely to become available?

If it is no better known by end of 2024 and election has got at least as far nominations closing then I think July 5th is most likely the correct date.
If it is no better known by end of 2024 and election has not got at least as far nominations closing then I think it will be clear he has not formally resigned.

Do we really want this not known option? If so, is end of 2024 appropriate or should it be more like close of nomination period?

How about not known when new leader takes position?

Nominations closing might be a little too soon or possibly even too late. So:

Earlier of (i) 31 December 2024 and (ii) A month after nominations close
might be better?

I think I would prefer 2 way choice with the no further info being dealt with as:
Before July 18 if a month after nominations close has passed without further info
Or
After July 18th if 31 December has been reached without a timetable for election being published.

However perhaps that is difficult having already set up 3 options. So happy to leave it if you prefer that

If Gordan Knott thinks he will have to wait until 31 Dec this might make him less inclined to bet.
Two weeks after nominations close might be long enough?

I want to keep the third option in some form because I feel the point of this market is very much not to make assumptions about what it would mean if we don't see the letter (Gordon obviously believes it doesn't matter that we can't see it right now).

I think you're right that decoupling when the third option resolves from the timing of the contest is bad, but I don't think it matters much whether it's two or so weeks later.

I'll go with when new leader takes position.