Resolution criteria

NASA officially expects Artemis III to launch no earlier than 2028. CNSA have said they will land on the Moon before the end of 2030. The market resolves to the month in which the next human successfully lands on the Moon. Resolution will be determined by official NASA or CNSA announcements. The landing must involve at least one human touching the lunar surface, ie leaving their lander.

Background

Artemis III is planned to be the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in December 1972. Due to heat shield issues on Orion and delays in the development of Starship, NASA officials have expressed an openness to flying Artemis III without a crewed landing. NASA is officially targeting September 2028, following the February 2026 announcement of further delays to ensure the Starship HLS and Axiom spacesuits are fully qualified. Artemis III will explore the lunar South Pole region.

Considerations

Few people believe the 2028 goal is achievable. The Artemis program has experienced repeated delays—NASA officially delayed Artemis III to no earlier than 2028 in January 2026, after previously delaying it to no earlier than 2027 in December 2024.

This description was generated by AI.