Resolution criteria
This market resolves based on two factors by January 1, 2030:
Number of UN member states recognizing Somaliland's sovereignty — verified through official UN member state statements and diplomatic recognition announcements. As of January 2026, Israel is the only UN member state recognizing Somaliland.
Whether China formally recognizes Somaliland — verified through official statements from China's Foreign Ministry or diplomatic channels.
The market resolves to whichever outcome is true on the resolution date. If multiple thresholds are crossed (e.g., China recognizes while 50+ UN members also recognize), the market resolves to the China recognition outcome.
Background
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in May 1991, but as of January 2026, is recognized as a sovereign state by only one UN member state — Israel. Somaliland has developed a distinct political identity from Somalia, with its own currency, flag, and parliament.
China firmly supports Somalia's "One Somalia" policy, opposing Somaliland's independence and leveraging its close ties with Mogadishu to counter Western and Gulf efforts toward recognition. China firmly supports Somalia's sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, and opposes any act to split its territory. The "One-Somalia" policy reflects and complements the "One-China" strategy, which has long shaped both countries' international relations as they attempt to safeguard their claimed borders.
Considerations
In May 2025, Somaliland's presidency appealed to UN member states to recognize it as an independent state, and in October 2025, local media reported that more than 20 states, including Israel, were moving toward recognition. However, most multilateral organisations and countries in the international community support the territorial integrity of Somalia and its central government and oppose Somaliland's secession. China's strategic interests in the region and its alignment with Somalia make Chinese recognition highly unlikely absent major geopolitical shifts.
1,000