Are these markets the same? Genuine question, I've lost track of what step in the impeachment process is which.

@Joshua technically no. First term ends 1/20/25. Election is 11/5/24.

But that's the only difference? Because there's the impeachment inquiry, and then there's approving the articles of impeachment, and then there's voting to convict right? Which step is this market about?

@Joshua If articles of impeachment pass the house, a president is impeached. The two other scenarios you mention are irrelevant.

So this market is about approving the articles, which requires a simple majority right?

That's what the original I linked is about also, so yeah should be arb-able besides the time difference.

@Joshua the time difference is significant therefore the markets are different

@JoshuaHerman30b8 Agreed, either that one should be higher than it is or this one should be lower than it is.