As of the creation of this market, three major changes are set to take effect on Nov 1, 2025:
100% additional tariffs on China, effective Nov 1. (Sample news article)
Launch of ACA open enrollment without subsidy expansion on Nov 1 (Sample news article)
No SNAP benefits (aka food stamps / EBT) distributed starting Nov 1 (Sample news article)
Answer resolves to how many of these currently pending Nov 1 changes are cancelled or delayed.
Resolution Details
Tariffs: Counts as defused if A) the 100% additional tariffs are cancelled before Nov 1, B) the 100% additional tariffs are delayed and do not take effect on Nov 1, C) the 100% rate is lowered to a different additional rate, or new products are exempted from it, even if they take effect on Nov 1, D) A court blocks the implementation of the tariffs before Nov 1
ACA subsidy expiration: Counts as defused if A) Congress passes and President Trump signs an extension of any length before Nov 1, B) the Trump administration announces some unilateral method of extending the subsidies, C) A court orders the extension of the subsidies before Nov 1. Still counts as defused if the extended subsidies are lower amounts than the ones expiring, as long as the currently pending complete expiration is averted.
SNAP benefit distribution: Counts as defused if A) Congress votes to re-open the government before Nov 1, B) Congress passes and President Trump signs a law to fund SNAP benefits during the shutdown before Nov 1, C) The Trump administration announces that they have the funds or announce some other method of continuing SNAP benefit distribution in November, D) A court orders the distribution of SNAP benefits during the shutdown before Nov 1. Still counts as defused if the distributed benefits are lower than the previous rate, as long as the total pause currently expected is averted.
For these purposes "Nov 1" begins at midnight ET at the end of Oct 31. Determinations based on official announcements from Trump administration social media accounts, government websites, or a news article from NYT, WaPo, FoxNews, CNN, Bloomberg, CNBC, APNews, Politico, or Reuters.
1,000I will not bet in this market to avoid conflicts but to test my own expectations I'll be transparent: I currently think 2 is the most likely result. I give 90% odds to China tariffs being defused, based on previous patterns and an upcoming meeting next week. I think SNAP extension is very likely as well (~75%?), due to the magnitude of the impact, though I have no idea whether A B C or D is the most likely catalyst. I think ACA is likely to ultimately get some kind of extension but it probably doesn't happen in October, due to less apparent urgency.
But I was wrong on how long the shutdown would last so I could be overestimating!