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MANIFOLD
Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ33
Dec 31
49%
chance
5

I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years. As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.

Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.

Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026
Otherwise Resolves NO

Some useful context:

I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.

I have the rest of the novel outlined to a reasonable degree of detail. I know where the story ends.

At the beginning of the year, I was at about 115k words. That should give you a sense of the pace I've been going at.

For my purposes, "Finished First Draft" just means I got to the end of the narrative arc of the story. Generally I only do very, very minimal editing or revising as I go. It doesn't matter if there are gaping plot holes or continuity errors or atrocious prose in places. If I get to the end, it's a finished first draft.

Update (July 6th, 2026): Current word count is 133,748. I'm right smack in the middle of writing the climax.

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Progress update: 133,748 words. I had one really good writing session where I think I got about 1800 words. Outside of that, it has been extremely hard to find time to write. A family trip to Iowa stole some time, and the kids' doctor appointments will prevent me from writing this afternoon.

Still feeling good about the story, though. Still determined to finish.