I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years. As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.

Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.

Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026
Otherwise Resolves NO

Some useful context:

I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.

I have the rest of the novel outlined to a reasonable degree of detail. I know where the story ends.

At the beginning of the year, I was at about 115k words. That should give you a sense of the pace I've been going at.

For my purposes, "Finished First Draft" just means I got to the end of the narrative arc of the story. Generally I only do very, very minimal editing or revising as I go. It doesn't matter if there are gaping plot holes or continuity errors or atrocious prose in places. If I get to the end, it's a finished first draft.