Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ43
Dec 31
44%
chance

I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years. As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.

Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.

Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026
Otherwise Resolves NO

Some useful context:

I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.

I have the rest of the novel outlined to a reasonable degree of detail. I know where the story ends.

At the beginning of the year, I was at about 115k words. That should give you a sense of the pace I've been going at.

For my purposes, "Finished First Draft" just means I got to the end of the narrative arc of the story. Generally I only do very, very minimal editing or revising as I go. It doesn't matter if there are gaping plot holes or continuity errors or atrocious prose in places. If I get to the end, it's a finished first draft.

Update (July 6th, 2026): Current word count is 133,748. I'm right smack in the middle of writing the climax.

Update (July 21, 2026): Current word count is 136,379. Still kinda right smack in the middle of writing the climax.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Progress update: 136,379 words. Writing sessions are few but decently high quality in the sense that I'm able to get a decent number of words down each time, and end up feeling decently about what I have written. Still feel that my original projection of being 90% done when the market opened was roughly accurate, maybe just a touch optimistic.

I was thinking I might be able to take some time off work to lock in and finish, but having looked at the kids' upcoming daycare closures and my company PTO policy, that may not be an option.

Still fairly optimistic, though.

Progress update: 133,748 words. I had one really good writing session where I think I got about 1800 words. Outside of that, it has been extremely hard to find time to write. A family trip to Iowa stole some time, and the kids' doctor appointments will prevent me from writing this afternoon.

Still feeling good about the story, though. Still determined to finish.