Will the 118th Congress Enact more than 329 Pieces of Legislation before the 119th Congress begins?
150
2025
25%
chance

If, at any time before the beginning of the 119th Congress, the number of passed "Enacted Legislation" for the 118th Congress per https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics is larger than 329, then this resolves YES. If it's smaller or the same for this whole time period, then this resolves NO. Note that this does not include those enacted via incorporation.

If for whatever reason I deem that site to be inaccurate, I reserve the right to choose an alternate source (which is backed by market consensus). If no such source can be found, then this will resolve N/A.

All number of Enacted Legislation passed markets:

All Number of Resolutions Passed Markets:

Jan 3, 10:30pm: Will the 118th Congress Enact more Pieces of Legislation than the 117th Congress? → Will the 118th Congress Enact more Pieces of Legislation than the 117th Congress (329)?

Feb 21, 12:11pm: Will the 118th Congress Enact more Pieces of Legislation than the 117th Congress (329)? → Will the 118th Congress Enact more than 329 Pieces of Legislation before the 119th Congress begins?

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
predicts NO

Erm... this is kinda awkward, according to GovTrack right now, the number of enacted legislation is 364. I think the best thing for me to do in this case is to edit the question to match the description, since the description explicitly says 329 is the cut-off. If anyone has any thoughts/objections, feel free to weigh in!

Seems like I ought to edit in “before the beginning of the 119th Congress,” into all these market descriptions in order to accurately match the market description. It seems better than changing resolution criteria midway through the market. Once again, feel free to weigh in if you have any thoughts!

As for why this actually happened, it looks like when I actually created the market, the number was indeed 329 per the Internet Archive, but then Biden signed a bunch of legislation into law two days after I created the market per GovTrack thus making my count off by ~10%.

I suppose I kind of doubt the informative utility of this and related markets. The number of bills enacted into law these days doesn't significantly correlate with the "amount" of law passed in substance -- for example, the recent omnibus funding bill contained many impactful provisions that could each have been a freestanding statute but got bundled up into just one enacted bill. Trades on this and other markets therefore don't seem to tell us much, unless I'm missing something here.

More related questions